[Arktwo] An Intervening Commentary

[Bruce Beach]

Lots and lots of evidence
continues to accumulate
counter to my July 28th date.

I have been very wrong before.
Way back just after 9/11
and with all the talk about striking Iraq -
I said it was just a feint -
that the US would really strike Iran.
(Some thought Iraq but a stepping stone -
a permanent land based 'carrier'.)
Whatever.
It hasn't worked out well for the US.
Lots of troops are tied down there -
in harms way.)

The next time that I thought
that action was that imminent
was when Sharon drew back from Gaza.
Then came his stroke -
which seemed like Divine intervention.

Now, the two leaders of the
two leading nuclear enemies of Iran
have been restrained by -
a. world opinion
b. UN veto powers
c. upcoming leadership changes
	in each of the two countries
d. non-support in the legislatures
	of the two countries
e. non-support from the public
	in both of the countries
f. opposition to military action
	by the other major military powers in the world

Whatever may have been the
Bush/Cheney inclination
	(restrained by all the above -
	and the previous US Military leadership)
it never had a strong partner for action in Olmert -
	like it would have had in Sharon or Netanyahu.
It is going to have an even weaker partner for action -
under Livini with Olmert's assumed resignation next week.

This is ALL very contraindicative to war.

Conventional opinion holds
that the same is true
for the world's financial indicators.

Popular financial pundits everywhere
are expressing confidence about
how the economic corner has been turned.
Things are now just going to get better and better.

http://tinyurl.com/633fhs

The Dow has been very volatile -
for the last many months -
BUT only within a narrow range -
if you can call a thousand dollars narrow -
which it is as a percentage of the market price.
And it has returned to the top end of that range.

The US Dollar too -
has been astonishingly stable since December.
Recently -
this last couple of weeks -
it has made a three cent climb back up
from its all time low.
In the monetary market -
a three cent movement is gigantic and -

"yesterday UBS AG ( UBS ) predicted the greenback would ...jump ... 5.0%
from where the dollar is trading now, ... a total rebound of about 8.0%.
... UBS is the world's second-biggest currency trader, meaning the Swiss
banking giant's projection is certain to get lots of play. "

There are other similar indicators such as:
gold is down -
oil is up
(considered good by the current
oil administration
and its oil friends in the Middle East)
and - if you read the above report -
consumer confidence is increasing.

In fact -
all sorts of positive things
appear in the financial news headlines.
(They have a way
of taking the most negative news
and framing it in a positive way -
but that is another story.)

Anyway - best of all -
the financial news headline today
is that the ABCP problem
(all the Canadian Banks except one -
are under bankruptcy protection)
has been solved -
and that Monday and Tuesday
the court will rule on the case -
ending the crisis.

http://tinyurl.com/52v9z7

So, I am very serious -
the economic and political indicators are -
the end of the world has been avoided.

Now mind you -
I am aware that this week:

a. Pakistan and India tested nuclear capable missiles

b. Hezbollah and Hamas greatly increased their arms supply

c. Things got a bit rocky between Russia and Georgia

d. That the Government in Lebanon
is for all practical purposes
being overthrown by the Syrian/Iran/Hezbollah axis.

e.  The Iraqi Government
is trying to make peace with Iran,
thus ignoring US policy.

f. Along with all the other destabilizing factors such as:
military movements and arms/oil-supply build-ups -
the world food crisis -
the North Korean negotiations
the South American fracases
the Myanmar cyclone tragedy
the intensifying conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan
and most of all -
Iran's outright rejection of
the UN nuclear limitation proposal.

Nevertheless -
the worsening political situation
in the US and Israel -
and the improving monetary markers in the US -
would seem to offset all else -
and indicate that war is not imminent.

Given all that -
I myself -
can see no rational reasons -
supported by geopolitical analysis -
that would argue for my July 28th date.

Nevertheless -
that is my story (date).
And as the man says -
I am sticking with it.

----------
Update on what is happening at Ark Two

The lights are back on -
in fact it turns out -
they were never off
for the last two weeks as I thought.

We could have always started the CAT of course -
(although it turns out that wouldn't have made a difference).
What I mean is that
the Perkins Generator was always working.

When Wilf and I started the Perkins Diesel -
the lights in the generator room didn't come on -
we were in the dark -
and the hallway was dark.

When Paul came this week to check the generator -
the same thing.
Spent an hour is the dark -
in the generator room
checking it all out -
and he said that it was just fine -
and that we would have to go check
the main panel with it running.

We were ASTOUNDED
(or at least I was)
when we stepped out into the hallway -
that we could see the lights on
down in the main hallway.

Turns out -
that one half of the isolation switch
at the main panel
was defunct -
and that half the shelter was lit -
and the other half
(which included the generator room -
and the generator hallway)
was not.

John went down with me this morning
to check out details
about what parts we needed -
and he fixed the problem.

Took two passes
of his taking the isolation switch apart
and using emery cloth on the contacts.
But it is bright now -
although I hope to still do
something else for it.

The next priorities are:

Tony / Richard checking the 36 battery cells.
Ed checking the gasoline generator for the cells.
Dennis fixing the settling tank leak.
Wilf checking the pump prime.
Terry doing the pressure up on the hot water tanks.
Bruce doing the water tests.
Phil installing the intercom.
Bell replacing the boxes at the road.

William, Skyler, Shayna and Evan
picking the A field before plowing.
Jim plowing under the winter Rye.
Rototilling the A field.

Mark turning with a front-loader
the 10 compost piles in the B field.
Brandy resetting the Beehives
(down 40% because of unusual winter.)

Chris K. last week added a trailer load
of chicken manure and hay to the compost pile
which now needs to be covered with sawdust.
We also need to take the ashes up there to go on it.

Lots of stuff needs to be moved up to -
and into the shelter.

Lots also going on in the larger Ark Two Community.
We are about to complete a large US National Survey.
Toronto Sun reporter did an hour interview this week.

----------------------

Meanwhile -
down at the house.

John and Dorene brought a load of stone this week
for the parking space that I got stuck in this winter -
and we need to set that in place.
I shovelled out there for awhile this afternoon
until too many black flies joined the party.

Jean was away to her art group -
and returned just as I was quitting.
She says that she will dig back out
the head nets -
that we used last year
when working on the garden.

Last fall
we never did get the shingles pasted down
on the house roof.
Then this winter -
some animal made itself a door
in the garage door
so some new panels
need to be screwed onto the front of it.

Chimney sweep to come the 15th.
(Wish we could have done it ourselves).
John is donating trailer loads of wood to us -
that need to be cut up and put in the garage.
Several piles of wood around the properties
need to be cleaned up -
split / cut / and moved to garage -
as well as a couple more trees need to be brought down.

Jean's greenhouse needs to have stuff moved into it -
the worm farm needs a lot of attention -
and her garden at the house needs rototilling -
as well as the memorial garden.
We need to clean out the garage again -
after the winter pile up - and dust up.
Tomorrow I hope to make some big dump trips.

-----------
Big projects still need to be finished
with Project 3000 -
and several others.

Jean and I of course
have lots of other things going on.
For one thing -
on Wednesday we have to take Jema
to the Lion's Club Kennel in Oakville
for exchange breeding.
Five days later we will have to pick her up.
Last week it was out to Cambridge and the Vet.
We do keep busy here -
everyday -
from early to late.

You can see that
we need all the help that we can get.
So if any of you would like to come up and help -
just give a holler.

----------
I know that I have promised a Newsletter
on the subject of Seed Saving
and related subjects -
but the Olmert thing in Israel -
the ABCP thing in Canada -
and the US Dollar activity
intervened -
so that I felt that I should make this commentary.

---------

Several people are donating Heritage seeds to us,
but I would still like to store LOTS more.

---------
I do hope that the remaining pollsters
get their surveys in this weekend -
before some event occurs
that will invalidate their responses
as a part of the over-all poll.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org