[Arktwo] Things are a'happenin.

[Bruce Beach]

It has been such an astounding week -
both in the international news
and for us locally -
that there are a number of things
that I want to share.

But first the news.
June 25th, just three days from now -
the US Fed will be setting new interest rates -
something that very much excites
the financial world at this time.
If they raise interest -
it cools the economy -
which is already in a downward spiral.
If they lower interest rates -
it kills the US dollar
in international exchange -
because other national banks are raising theirs.
On July 3, the ECB meets -
which is another date that is not far off.

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised  to brace
for a full-fledged crash
in global stock and credit markets
over the next three months,

The BIS ( Bank For International Settlements)
announced earlier in the week
that the global credit crisis
could lead world economies into a crash
on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

Morgan Stanley,
the largest US investment firm -
warned of “catastrophic events”
to come in the next few weeks
as some 'big bank' or other financial firm -
is about to collapse.
(I have read several speculations
about this -
but don't actually know
who or what they are talking about).

The point is -
that these are not
run-of-the-mill pundits.
It is like you had gone to
the three top brain surgeons in the US
and they had all said -
"You are going to die within three months -
and there is nothing we can do about it."
I would think that you should be making
funeral arrangements.

Lots of pundits out there -
with similar predictions -
but this is new.
Never seen anything like this before.

The Dow just keeps rolling along -
(oh, it was down a bit Friday)
but it is still in the range
that it has been in for months -
and the same is true for the dollar.
The patient looks healthy -
on the bedside monitor.

The lab results are poorly - however.
Import versus export figures.
CPI - Consumer Price Index.
Credit card arrears.
Foreclosure rates.
Bankruptcy rates.
Manufacturing investment.
Wholesale inventories.
Just a whole litany of numbers -
you wouldn't want to hear.

All the world's stock markets showing
severe losses for the last year -
except for Canada.
I am surrounded by Canadians
who think everything is just dandy.
Not one in a hundred that I meet
is aware that six of the seven big Canadian Banks
are under bankruptcy protection.
In other words -
they are bankrupt.

The Ontario Court of Appeal
will hear the matter on June 25 and 26.
I have written about this before -
at length -
so I won't go on about it again -
but that is another interesting date -
not that it means all that much.

First a decision to hear the appeal.
Then a date is set for a hearing -
sometime in the future.
Then a long hearing.
Then the wait for that decision.
Then another appeal period -
to the Supreme Court -
and then the whole procedure repeats itself -
the bottom line being -
the ABCP bond holders still don't get their billions -
from the bankrupt banks.
It is the Canadian way.

Canadian collapse -
like many other collapses -
would mean world collapse.
All the economies are pillars -
of the same financial temple.

At the moment
there are so many pillars shaking
that I can't even mention them all -
for example
the price of -
gold, oil and gasoline.

On June 22,
another date not far off :)
the Saudi Oil Minister
will meet with
US, the UK, China, Japan, Germany and India to:
“Find a solution to stabilise oil prices”. -

Won' have to wait long
to find out how that works out.
Remember -
prices can be 'stable'
high - low - or anywhere in between.

Then there is the price of rice -
and corn -
up fourfold from a year ago.
This actually means starvation
for many in the world -
and riots for their governments.

The world is in a financial riot or rout.
Iran announced this week -
that it wants gold for its oil.
For those who saw significance in Saddam
wanting Euros instead of dollars -
this has even greater significance.

-----------
The thesis here
is that financial turmoil -
and financial collapse -
particularly of Empires -
(the US currently being
the world's largest)
leads to wars.

Concurrent with what some people see as
world economic collapse -
there is simultaneously going on
a world war threat.
Where before I listed the predictions
of three top financial authorities
(Royal Bank of Scotland -
Bank of International Settlements -
Morgan Stanley)
Now I will mention three top
military / political players.

Russian leaders from Putin on down -
have directly / specifically / pointedly
told Israel to NOT attack Iran.

Mohamed ElBaradei Director General
of the Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
the UN atomic watchdog
warned on Saturday
that an attack on Iran
would turn the region into a fireball.

The President of Tehran in effect
tauntingly told Israel to bring it on.

My point being -
that these people at this level
don't talk this openly
about such a subject -
unless they think something is really about to happen.

----------
Of course -
it could all be just talk.

Israeli / Greek manoeuvres,
code-named "Glorious Spartan 08,"
took place on May 28 and June 12,
consisting of aerial exercises.

The New York Times reported
the goal was
for more than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighter jets
to prepare for long-range strikes.

The distance from Israel to Greece
is the same as from Israel to Iran.
The key is in-air fuelling practice.
For a long range strike -
the tactical aircraft need to refuel
soon after take-off
because it takes so much fuel
to take-off and get up to altitude -
that the need to refuel
before leaving friendly territory
and starting their long run.

Somewhere after departing their targets -
they then need to refuel again
to get home.
These are very complicated manoeuvres
and before one undertakes such a mission -
with a large number of planes -
it is necessary to have
all the CURRENT pilots and personnel practice
to make sure everyone is up to speed.
It is a very expensive dress rehearsal -
but one that needs to be done.

The Israelis have recently been provided
by the US
with some very recent U.S. military systems
that have to be integrated
with what they already had.

"The New York Times on Friday cited US officials as saying a major Israeli
military exercise earlier this month seemed to be a practice for any
potential strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

http://tinyurl.com/4lhj87

On the other side -
the Russians / Iranians
are also practicing.
Iranian military technicians
are in Russia at this very moment
getting last minute training
on the latest Russian defensive missile systems.
----------
I of course have no idea
as to how things will happen.
Probably not in any way
that I might speculate.

There is obviously
massive build-up going on
by Hezbollah and Hamas -
who are being armed by Iran and Syria.

If one is inclined to believe in prophecy -
things certainly don't boon well
for Damascus.

Whatever -
I am with ElBaradei -
that the whole thing is a tinderbox.
Nuclear Pakistan has a mutual defense agreement with Iran.
Any action by Pakistan
will prompt action by Nuclear India -
and that will go both ways.

Nuclear Russia is more than a match
for nuclear Israel -
but not for Nuclear U.S.A.

Some strategists think
that consequently the BIG guys
will just stand back -
and let the others fight it out.
Nope,
I don't think so.
Everyone will get pulled in.

-------
And yes,
I am still saying -
July 28th.
This is the one and only time
that I have ever picked a date.
I had windows of expectation before -
that were usually years
and sometimes months in advance -
but this is the one and only time -
that I have picked a date.
I have had this deadline now,
actually for years -
such that other interim windows
have come and gone.

Anyway -
the date is not far off now -
only about five weeks -
so you can imagine how pressured I feel -
to get things done.
Could happen sooner - of course -
and a week or two later -
may still fit within my paradigm.
But - for a date -
I have picked July 28th
which now brings me to the current scene
at Ark Two.

For the last several years -
My wife and I have said -
"This year we won't plant a garden" -
because for us it is just too much work.
It seems particularly irrational -
to plant this year -
when I think we won't harvest.

But, anyway -
we end up doing it.
I know lots of other people
who say that they will -
but then they don't.
But we say we won't - an we do.
It all seems rather perverse.

Started out -
our rototiller wasn't working -
ended up -
that we now have three working rototillers.
Started out -
to be a small garden out back -
but ended up with that -
and two large gardens
plus ten small ones -
in the 'A' field -
and a fairly good one in the 'B' field -
plus some other scattered activity around.

Awfully late getting them in -
but a month ago it was very hot -
and then turned quite cool.
Second day of summer today -
and I put on my long johns this morning.
The rain - and its timing -
has been excellent all week.

We have done a number of interesting experiments -
and Jean has said of a couple of them -
"I want you to be sure
to tell the people on your newsletter -
about this."

Well,
here we are -
and I have run out of space -
so that will have to wait until another time -
as well as a recount of our trip today
to the Antique Power and Farming Technology show -
which was truly amazing.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org