[Arktwo] This week in the world.

[Bruce Beach]

I started to write this
a week ago -
when a number of analysts
that I regularly read
had commented how little
geopolitical news there was
at the moment.

The world did seem preoccupied.
Asia with great natural disasters.
The US with the great political circus.
Israel with the instability of its government.
Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran -
all taking advantage of this
lull in the limelight -
to press forward mightily with their
arms build-up.

Yes,
it was Springtime -
and the world had stopped to smell the roses.
Fewer deaths in Iraq.
The US dollar had been steady as a rock
for the last many months.
The Dow, remaining in its stratospheric levels,
was the most even on the previous Friday -
that we had seen in months.
Even the price of oil had dipped down a bit.
Things like:

Oh,
hither and yon -
there was a dissenter and dispairer.
A German diplomat made a fuss
in the middle east about Iran's
continued nuclear activity -
and the IAEA made some unflattering remarks
about those same activities.
But nothing that anyone
literally got up in arms about.

Nope - everywhere I looked
there were only contra-indications
regarding my July 28th expectations.

1. Iran doesn't seem about to set anything off -
because time seems to be on its side.
President Ahmadinjad is receiving more and more accolades
from the Supreme Ayatollah.

2. The Iranian satellites in
Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas)
are strengthening their
alliances
arms
organization

2. The PTB in each of the above locations
are talking softly so as not to rock the boat.

Hezbollah sent back the bodies
of Israeli soldiers that had been killed.
Hamas did not use its growing arsenal
of longer range rockets.
Syria stopped making noises
about its nuclear site having been bombed.

3. I noted on one day -
to my astonishment -
that there was not one word in Haaretz about Olmert.
No friction there with the Islamists anyway.
All talk, talk, talk on his part about
peace, peace, peace.
"You would like Golan back? - Why sure!"
"Give you back the territories? - But of course!"

4. The Islamists and the OBL group
definitely want to keep everything cool -
because the biggest help they have seen in decades
is on the horizon under the name of "CHANGE!".

5. Many powerful forces in the US
are striving to maintain calm -
or at least the status quo.
Pelosi and the many on the one side -
but also Gates, Rice and many from within
the government and the Pentagon.

Yep, the world seemed to be moving away -
from conflict -
and my July 28th expectations.
-------------
I have also been very much watching
the ABCP finagle in Canada.
Always delay, delay, delay.
Has been going on since last August -
but Superior Court Justice Colin Campbell
rendered a verdict Friday
accepting lawyer Purdy Crawford's
resolution / proposal that
the banks can't be sued -
and that in effect
that people aren't going to get
their money back.

21 days for James Woods,
a lawyer representing Jean Coutu
and other Montreal companies to appeal.
Appeal Court will then take time to decide
whether to hear the appeal.
Appeal hearing date will then be set in future.
Appeal hearing will take time.
Appeal decision will take time.
Then higher level of appeal.
Repeat all the above.
Bottom line -
losers never get money.

Six of the seven big Canadian Banks
are under bankruptcy protection -
and in this script nothing happens.
Crazy Coyote just stays suspended -
out in the air.

I was amused about
how ABCP used to bring up on Google -
article after article
about the Canadian Banks being in
Bankruptcy Protection.
Now it makes a big thing of saying that -
the ABCP are non-bank bonds -
and most of the ABCP hits are now for -
American Board of Cardiovascular Perfusion -
which NEVER EVER appeared before.
Do you think that YAHOO and GOOGLE
could be manipulated?
Naaaah. Couldn't be.

------------
Well, all that was GOOD news -
that the world wasn't about to collapse -
and there was even BETTER news.
Diplomats from 111 nations formally adopted
a landmark treaty banning cluster bombs

That news was tempered by the fact
the biggest makers and users
of cluster bombs:
the United States,
Russia,
China,
Israel,
India and
Pakistan
did not sign the agreement.

Cluster bombs are one of the most devastating of weapons
for civilians.
Years later -
farmers strike unexploded "bomblets"
in their fields
and children mistake them for playthings.
Their elimination was Diana's
(Princess of Wales)
primary project.
The good die young.

----------
So -
that was the state of the world
early in the week -
and it all went to prove
why one can't do news analysis these days.
Everything changes too quickly.

First,
Olmert went to Washington -
and everything was just peachy -
and then -
back home -

Israeli deputy prime minister Shaul Mofaz said that:
"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it."
"Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will
be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear
programme."

Mofaz is a former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, and
hopes to replace Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima
party.

There are other names to watch, however,
Dalia Itzik, Israel’s speaker of House
Israeli President Shimon Peres
Vice Premier Haim Ramon whom some say
Olmert would probably appoint as PM
if Olmert has to resign.

Another new Kadima party leader
to replace Olmert -
might be Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

The present Defense Minister
Ehud Barak has predicted
new elections will be held
by the end of this year (November)
which would bring Netanyahu onto the scene -
but that is over my time horizon -
as are the US elections.

---------
Speaking of the US elections -
that is another matter up in the air.
There remains the question as
to who will be the Democratic vice-presidential candidate.

 ``But I am not going to discuss who is being considered, how they're being
considered. We're just not going to talk about this anymore,'' said Obama.

So -
how does that grab you
for the Democratic process.
What decision do you have in that?
Or did you ever?

It used to be said that
those decisions were made
in back smoke filled rooms.
As recent elections have shown
they certainly aren't made
in the voting booths.

One never knows
who the next president may be.
It could be Cheney.
I come from the days
when we could never have predicted
it might be Ford.

There is one prediction that I CAN make.
If Obama is assassinated
there will be excitement
in the American streets.
-------------
While Olmert was in Washington
U.S. Director of National Intelligence,
Admiral Mike McConnell,
was in Israel being briefed by Meir Dagan, the head of MOSSAD.

McConnell is the one who presented the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
in 2007, which said that Iran had stopped its military nuclear project,
although that interpretation has been since qualified. Dagan is providing
McConnell with Israeli information that shows Iran has ambitions to develop
nuclear weapons and is en route to doing so.

McConnell is the person who briefs President Bush every morning about the
information collected by the intelligence networks. He has great influence
on U.S. foreign policy.

So -
things are moving and shaking there -
just as they are in the Pentagon -
where US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates
has replaced a bunch of Generals
just like Admiral O'Hallon got replaced -
and Petraesus became head of the Army.
It looks to me -
like a lot of ducks are being gotten in order.
---------
Mofaz' statement that
alternatives to attacking Iran
are running out
really put the fat into the fire.

Some blame on his statement
the fact that the price of oil
went up on Friday
the most that it had ever gone up
in a single day.

The Dow dropped almost $400
and the dollar started down.

There used to be a saying that
loose lips sink ships -
but his words rocked the world.

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed
ElBaradei, yesterday (Saturday) rebuked Mofaz's comment in an interview with
the German newspaper Der Spiegel.

"With unilateral military actions, countries are undermining international
agreements, and we are at a historic turning point," the nuclear watchdog
chief said.

In fairness,
one has to also acknowledge that
the Nobel Peace prize laureate
condemned Iran's leadership, saying
"the readiness of Iran's side to cooperate leaves a lot to be desired."

Teheran's leadership "is sending a message to the entire world: we can build
a bomb in relatively short time," ElBaradei added.

----------
Iran of course -
in what I would think could be characterized
as only the greatest hypocrisy -
after its repeated statements
in the last months
that Israel would be wiped from the earth -

demanded action from the UN Security Council in response to Mofaz' remarks

A letter submitted Saturday
by Iranian UN Ambassador Mohammed Khazaee
to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon,
stated:

"Such a dangerous threat against a sovereign state and a member of the
United Nations constitutes a manifest violation of international law and
contravenes the most fundamental principles of the Charter of the United
Nations, and, thus, requires a resolute and clear response on the part of
the United Nations, particularly the Security Council,"

(All true -
but like Iran has never threatened Israel?)
And what have Security Council members
Russia and China ever done about that?

---------

To top that off -
Iran and Syria
created a joint missile command.
This probably shook up Israel
as much as anything.

AND -
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf
is reportedly on the verge of quitting
which may then put the nukes there
under the control of the extremists -
and that will very much shake up India -
even if it doesn't bother you.
---------
Nope - the week started out quietly -
but ended up with considerable excitement.

There will be a lot of interest Monday -
regarding how the stock market
and the dollar -
and oil -
will respond.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org