[Arktwo] End of world postponed - again

[Bruce Beach]

I really have to search
in obscure places
to find such facts
as I do.
It is just too scary
for the MSM to publish it
in headlines.

Ask any Canadian -
and they have no idea
that the Canadian banks are on the verge
of failing.

To Canadians
all the troubles are south of the border.
Jean called me to watch the TV News last night.
US house prices down.
Canadian house prices up.
Lots of foreclosures in US.
Nothing out of usual in Canada.
US dollar down.
Canadian dollar up.
US confidence low.
Canadian confidence high.
US Federal Budget Deficit Increasing.
Canadian Budget surplus.

Life is good in Canada.
A bit snowy.
We have already gotten all the snow
for an average year -
and lots more coming.
Great for skiing.

Personally -
I don't ski -
but I shovel.
Well - I did -
until the last shovel full yesterday -
when the head of the shovel
flew into the river with scoop of snow.

Did get the path shovelled out to the battery shed.
And put water in the batteries.
Snow so high on our back door -
I couldn't get out -
so had to go around the house
and shovel my way in.
Snow sometimes up to my knees.

Thought we had the hydraulic wood splitter fixed
until I went to use it last night.
Am asking Terry to come on weekend
and try again.
Friend Fred loaned me another wood splitter -
so we are keeping warm.

And I fixed Jean's washing machine -
and we are booked with Jema
for either Purina, Milkbone, or NSD booth
at the Sportsman Show on the 13th of March -
so life goes merrily on.

Just can't plan on the end of the world.
I have about a dozen news articles -
relating to the Canadian bank ABCP derivative problem.

Probably more than you want to know.
Anyway -
the end of the financial world was -
in December
postponed to February 8th
and then to
February 27th.

Now it has been postponed until -
March 3rd or
13th -
they think.

Don't bet on it.
They (the bankers) put on a very brave face.
And the public up here buys it.
You can look at this source yourself -

http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=328051

and I will summarize some of the main points for you:

Restructure plan for frozen ABCP on 'successful' path

(That is the headline.}

despite credit market collapse

(Oh, there is a collapse?)

plan to restructure $30-billion of frozen asset backed commercial paper

(30b - is that all?)
(I doubt it.)
(Asset Backed Commercial Paper)
(That is the ABCP)

Mark Boutet, ... spokesman for the Pan-Canadian Committee... dismissed a
suggestion that the expiry of a standstill agreement ... between the various
participants of the restructuring could be a problem ...  calling it "a
technical thing." He said negotiating an extension so that work can continue
will not be a problem.

Meanwhile, there is growing concern among many observers about the progress
of the restructuring. The problem is the market for the assets underlying
the seized-up ABCP is in a nose dive.

... the market value ... has deteriorated dramatically in the last few
weeks.

"It's going to be more difficult for this restructuring to get done... said
a fund manager with significant holdings of ABCP who asked not to be named.
"The whole credit market continues to spiral. " (downward).

 many of the swaps underlying the ABCP are under water in terms of market
value, and as the credit crunch unfolds as many analysts predict, they will
likely move deeper under water.

Proponents of the restructuring maintain that the debt ...is good quality
and ... if held to maturity, ... will not result in losses. The problem is
that many of the positions are highly leveraged and subject to collateral
calls.

As part of the restructuring, the triggers for collateral calls would be
reset to make the likelihood of one being pulled more remote. As well, the
committee is negotiating with a group of banks to establish a $14-billion
line of credit to cover any margin calls. But given the events in the credit
market, those steps might not be enough to prevent losses.

"The market is worse," said Purdy Crawford, chairman of the Pan-Canadian
Committee. Mr. Crawford declined to comment further on the matter.

The committee is also trying to find a way to ensure that the banks and
other financial institutions that play a role in the restructuring do no
(sic) get hit by lawsuits.

... a detailed plan of the restructuring by the end of February, including
the value of the new notes investors will receive.

(End of February
is not far off.
The question is -
will the lenders accept the terms?
The banks are betting on
that they will -
in hopes of getting something -
compared to bringing down the system -
and getting nothing.)

(Who are the lenders?
Mainly the Saudis and China.
Dollar going down -
so get rid of dollar and buy anything with it.
So -
stock market goes up.
This is just Beach theory -
so don't be too sure that is what is happening.
I'm not.)

>From another source yesterday:

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings ...on ...(ABCP) notes
issued by KKR ...remain unchanged following an extension amendment agreement
among the trusts ... the payment date ... has been further extended to March
3, 2008, while the March 13 payment date remains unchanged... given the
current market values and expected amortization of the underlying 'AAA'
rated Alternative-A residential mortgage-backed securities. However ... the
ratings ... remain on negative watch, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty as
to whether the pricing on the underlying portfolio will continue to decline
between now and the final maturity of the ABCP programs, S&P said.

---------------
Now then -
here are some ridiculous headlines
from yesterday

Banks help FTSE break 6,000

The FTSE 100 punched back through the 6,000 level on Tuesday amid a strong
performance from the banking sector.

And SIMULTANEOUSLY!!!

Expected loan losses drag down U.S. bank earnings

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Anticipating higher loan losses, U.S. banks and
thrifts set aside record amounts of money last year, driving down their
earnings, as the housing and credit markets soured, U.S. regulators said on
Tuesday.

-------------
If you are looking for a job
here is one that pays
$180,770/year.

(The government is looking for people with)

skill in performing duties associated with a financial-institution closing,
such as receivership management, resolutions and/or asset disposition;
knowledge of the resolutions process as it relates to complex financial
institutions.

(That means they are getting ready
to close a lot of big financial institutions.)

Well they already are:

As of yesterday,
231 major mortgage lending firms have gone
bust since December, 2006.

The Implode-o-Meter site

http://ml-implode.com/

reports this as it happens.
It is interesting to go there
and watch the names
of the institutions
as they go on the list.

I watch that -
and the Dow
(which is completely controlled -
but I still want to see
what the controllers are doing)

and particularly -
I watch the dollar.

I could say a lot
about what it did yesterday -
and is doing today.
Maybe there is something
to this February 27th date.
It isn't over yet.

----------
Not everything
wraps around the financial world.

Months ago -
we were watching Turkey
and saying -
"Oh my goodness -
what if Turkey invaded Iraq."

Way back then -
we were saying -
"If Iran ever -
a. gets those TOR missiles from Russia
b. gets the Nuke Fuel from Russia
c. gets those 3000 centrifuges working
d. gets advanced Type II centrifuges
e. disregards the UN sanctions
f. doesn't let the IAEA see the 'secret' sites
g. starts its own oil bourse

but not just one of those things occurred -
rather all of them did -
and still nothing has happened.

Months ago -
we were saying -
"The Surge is a temporary thing
and the troops will be coming home."

But more are being sent.

Months ago -
it was hoped that Israel had destroyed
most of Hezbollah rockets in Lebanon.

But now Hezbollah says
they have three times as many -
and many more trained troops.

Months ago -
Israel pulled out of Gaza
and tried to isolate it from weapons.

But now -
Gaza is reported to be many times
more heavily armed.

This list can just go on and on -
about:
Pakistan
North Korea
Kosovo
US Missile placements around Russia
Venezuelan oil going to China
and many other issues
that we thought had the potential
of being the trigger
that could open up the BIG conflict.

And I haven't even mentioned -
Syria,
Al Qaeda,
Serbia,
and a half dozen conflicts in Africa.

Nor -
the price of oil -
food prices throughout the world -
social problems in the US -
and dozens of other issues -

But still -
the world just goes on.

If I bounced
from this headline to that -
everything would change
before I could begin to analyze it.

What is important????

Maybe some decision being taken
by some Financial Minister
in the Middle East - or China.

Maybe some contingency planning
going on at the Pentagon.

Maybe some strike planning
being made by the IDF -
(Israeli Defence Force).

Maybe some pre-emptive strike plans -
being made in Russia.

Maybe great secret space weapons -
that the US has in space
that we know nothing about.

Maybe some 18 year old girl
in Palestine or Gaza
who has decided to become a terrorist -
and who will set the whole thing off.

Who knows.
Certainly not I.
But it does seem that
the world hangs by a thread.
Environmentally.
Socially.
Economically.
Geo-politically.
Militarily.

So -
at Ark Two we prepare -
shovel snow -
cut wood -
and plan to go to the Sportsman Show.

Weird world.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org