[Arktwo] Survey

[Bruce Beach]

Inquiry from 
The History Channel 
this week. 

Tried to determine the thesis 
of the story they were planning. 
Something about way back 
in the days of the Cold War - 
there were people who built 
fallout shelters. 

Sort of a "Ho, Ho, Ho" story 
so far as I could tell - 
wanting to fly out from California 
and do some shots 
about how there is a crazy man 
who still has a bunker. 

Their point of view 
is that the shelters were never used 
and will never be used 
because the world leaders are not insane 
and the leaders know that if they used nukes 
they too would be destroyed. 

Anyway - 
this has brought me to a new idea. 
I would like to do a survey 
to try to determine 
how many people think 
there will be a nuclear war. 

Certainly none of the big polling organizations 
are doing a survey of this type.

Now, I know about scientific polling principles - 
and that one needs to have 
a demographically balanced survey 
as to: 
geographic location 
age 
sex 
education 
and any number of other factors. 

Can't do something like that - 
but what I have in mind 
could still be meaningful. 

For sure - 
I DO NOT WANT to ask people - 
who read this newsletter. 
Not even their family or friends, 
or acquaintances, 
because birds of a feather - 
flock together - 
and all that - 
and people who know you - 
might shape their answer for you. 

AND - 
I am just discussing the idea 
at the moment - 
and I don't want you 
to go out and do it - 
yet.

But what I have in mind - 
is a quick little survey 
of about five questions.

Then what I would like is for 
at least twenty people on this list 
to each go out and ask five strangers  
to answer the five questions. 

They would read off the following: - 
I am helping to conduct 
a national survey - 
for a non-profit organization 
and would you be willing to hear five questions 
and answer them if you are willing? 

Nothing is being sold. 
You won't be contacted later. 
We don't even need to know your name.
There are only five people 
in this geographic area 
being asked the five questions. 
Would you help us with this survey - 
may I ask you the up to five questions?

[If the person asks who the survey is for you can reply - 
I will be glad to tell you after the questions - 
but need you to answer them first 
so as not to prejudice the survey.]

Okay?

Question One - 

Do you believe there will be a nuclear war?

[If the answer is no - 
then thank the person 
and tell them that completes the survey.] 

If the answer is yes - 

Question Two - 

How probable do you think 
that it will occur?

10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100 percent?

Question Three - 

How soon do you think it will occur -
Within 2 years - 5 years - 10 years - 20 years - over 20 years?

Question Four - 

Do you think North America will be hit?

Question Five - 

Do you make any sort of survival preparations?

-------------
If the person wishes to know 
who the survey was for 
you can tell them that it is for 
a non-profit international survival organization 
based in Canada 
that is called Ark Two.

-------------
On the survey sheet 
you can note 
a. the persons approximate age 
b. male or female 
c. something about their apparent 
education, employment, etc - 
that you think helps identify them - or that you think may be important.

---------
Okay, 
what I want to do now - 
is get your feed back 
about conducting the survey. 

Do you think the questions can be improved? 

Do you think the manner of the survey can be improved - 
in a way that is practical 
for us to do so? 

Would you be willing to help conduct the survey - 
and ask five people the questions? 

Please let me know at:

DawnSayer@webpal.org 

and also mention where you are located.

Peace and love,
Bruce