[Arktwo] Flop - Flip

[Bruce Beach]

The week started off so slow
that by mid-week
I thought I might not even
write a newsletter.

The 9th of AV
turned out to be
the 9th of 'nuthin'.

The Syrian fortifications
are still of course in place -
and they have still opened the roads
towards the Golan Heights -
where the Israelis have now concentrated
a lot military power.

But what was that thing -
about all the Syrians getting out
of Lebanon,
but now returning.
One plot tied it into the sinking
of the North Korean ship
carrying nuclear materials to Iran.
Story line says that
they were to make a stop in Beirut -
and demonstrate their nuke stuff.

Not likely.
But the US Navy sunk them anyhow -
killed some sailors
rescued some others
and sent divers down to the ship -
so who knows what it was all about.
I haven't heard anyone in
North Korea
Iran or
Syria complaining -
so maybe there was something to it.

And then there was that BIG
Nazarallah exclusive on AlJeezra.
Another BIG flop for my part.
Same old -
same old
shout, shout, shout -
and nothing happened.

So many, many, many times
down through the years -
events have seemed to portend ....
well you know what -
but then nothing -
like at the ends of Ramadan
or many other special dates.

So -
the week was seemingly a flop -
when a number of news items
flipped onto the scene.

Debka came out with a story
about a 250 plane purchase
by Iran from Russia

	http://tinyurl.com/3ana6z

Tehran and the Russian Rosoboronexport arms group are about to sign a
mammoth arms deal running into tens of billions of dollars for the sale to
Tehran of 250 Su-30MKM warplanes and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel tankers. DEBKAfile’s
military sources report Iran has stipulated delivery of the first aircraft
before the end of 2007.

I don't think so.
I think someone is
stirring the pot.

If it were true -
then these are very powerful planes
and would cause a major shift
among the Middle East countries
military powers.

I don't think Israel
would let it happen -
but then I didn't think
that Israel would let
the Russian TORs be delivered
to Iran -
but they were.

----------

Still Russia and Iran
are not on that good a footing
at this moment.

	http://tinyurl.com/2erxrx

Moscow's decision to postpone the completion of a 1,000-megawatt reactor in
Bushehr, Iran, has shocked Tehran and is bound to bring Russia-Iran
relations to a crisis point, this at a time when neither country can afford
to have such a negative impact on their geostrategic considerations.

----------
And not only that:

	http://tinyurl.com/2jcux7

As neighbors who share only maritime borders in the Caspian Sea, Russia and
Iran are also at odds over the division of the water and its resources.
Marathon negotiations among the littoral states over a new legal regime for
the Caspian have been deadlocked for many years and, certainly, the
worsening political climate due to the nuclear rift will further complicate
this matter.

President Vladimir Putin has not hesitated in flexing Russia's naval might
in the Caspian to coerce the Iranians on the contested issue of Caspian
ownership and, with alarming signs of a full-fledged crisis in Iran-Russia
relations, he (and his successor) may be inclined to make more use of that
leverage.

----------
So -
I doubt Debka on this one -
about their getting new planes
from Russia.

Yep,
make a big down payment
and hope -
like they are hoping
for their nuclear reactor.

Iran is having lots of problems.
(Just as is
US
Russia
China
Europe
and most anyone else you can name.

In Iran however -

"A decline in oil production, economic sanctions preventing the country from
importing gasoline, an unemployment rate of over 30%, an inflation rate of
over 20%, and the government having to resort to redenomination. All of
which give Iran's clergymen two choices as the next course of action: either
they content themselves with what the future holds, i.e. the same fallout as
the USSR, or they can turn to adventurism. They are, of course, pursuing the
latter by investing money and arms in Shiaa allies from Basra through
Beirut, with some Sunni "customers" getting the same special treatment, such
as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine.

For Iran, it is only a matter of time. Sparked by Ahmadinejad's decision to
impose fuel rationing, protests and riots have broken out in a number of
cities in Iran. In some, protesters set petrol stations and government-owned
banks on fire in an angry backlash against the decision. Iran hasn't
witnessed such violent protests since the 1999 student riots. These riots
have compelled Ahmadinejad to declare states of emergency in 22 cities and
to deploy thousands of police officers and security forces in the country's
major cities in order to suppress the violence.

	http://tinyurl.com/2omw9d

Okay -
so just like with the Debka article -
you have to consider the source
of the above viewpoint.

The source of that article
is the expatriates -
and things may not be really that glum
for Iran -
but even if they are -
then I am more likely to think
that it would lead to
the wag the dog scenario
rather than some peaceful resolution
for the US and Israel.

	http://tinyurl.com/2jcux7

----------

As I have just said -
times are tough everywhere -
and now this from a source
for which you can take it as
the Gospel Truth.

Iraqi government in deepest crisis

US and Iraqi officials are trying to prevent complete disintegration.

	http://tinyurl.com/23eq2n

Baghdad - Iraq is in the throes of its worst political crisis since the fall
of Saddam Hussein with the new democratic system, based on national
consensus among its ethnic and sectarian groups, appearing dangerously close
to collapsing, say several politicians and analysts.

This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions and has left
parliament unable to make headway on 18 benchmarks Washington is using to
measure progress in Iraq, including legislation on oil revenue sharing and
reforming security forces.

And the disconnect between Baghdad and Washington over the urgency for
solutions is growing. The Iraqi parliament is set for an August vacation as
the Bush administration faces pressure to show progress in time for a
September report to Congress.

At the moment, Iraqi politicians are simply trying to keep the government
from disintegrating.

----------

Yep,
it just gets better and better -
or hotter and hotter -
over there in the Middle East.

	http://tinyurl.com/2zfry7

"More than 6,000 sailors and Marines with the Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike
Group will leave Naval Station Norfolk and Naval Amphibious Base Little
Creek next week, bound for the Middle East.

They are taking with them:

1. The USS Kearsarge, an amphibious assault ship;

2. the Ponce, an amphibious transport ship;

3. the Gunston Hall, a dock landing ship,

4. the Porter, a guided-missile destroyer,

5. the Carr, a guided-missile frigate,

6. an attack submarine from Connecticut

7. a guided-missile cruiser from Florida

8. the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit,

9. a helicopter squadron

10. and a combat logistics battalion.

----------

So,
when they get there -
to join the four carriers -
each with their supporting fleets -
and the additional FOUR strike forces
that are already hovering in the area
they will find that
the Iraqi Congress will be on vacation.

But no matter -
so will the  US Congress be on vacation
from August 6 - September 3

I guess we are just sending the boys off to camp -
while the elders are away
on vacation.

----------

Lots of firsts taking place.

July 26,

The USS nuclear carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65), en route for the Persian
Gulf, entered the Mediterranean Sea Monday July 23 for joint maneuvers with
the French Charles De Gaulle carrier. Rafale M fighters took off from its
deck, touched down briefly on Enterprise runways and returned to the parent
ship. This is the first time ever that French fighter-bombers have landed on
an American carrier and used its facilities.

	http://tinyurl.com/2b6397

----------

Last week I told you
that the upcoming LARGEST ever exercise
by the Indian Navy -
with its carriers
will be a combined exercise
with the US Navy
which is bring in a special US carrier
from the Pacific.

When you add up all the major carriers
plus the task force carriers
which handle short takeoff aircraft
and helicopters -
and the carriers of the other nations
there must be more than a dozen
converging on the Middle East
for the boys' summer camp activities.

Adding to that the hundreds of other
support ships -
they are having trouble
not running into each other -
and that is not an exaggeration.

----------

I have no idea
whether there is anything
up for August or September -
but obviously -
a lot of powerful involved people
are going on vacation -
and not worrying about it.

I am sure
that a lot of the US troops
who are getting extended duty over there
would like to take a break
and go on vacation also -
and if there is nothing that important happening -
I don't see why they shouldn't be given one.

May not be anything happening
over in the Middle East -
but LOTS is happening at Ark Two.
When I thought that I wasn't going to have
anything else to write about -
then I thought if I was going to write
that I would write about that.

Well,
maybe next week will be a quiet week -
and I will have a chance
to talk about all that then.

But -
I wouldn't count on it.
Even the stock market could make news.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org