[Arktwo] By the numbers

[Bruce Beach]

The whole US has around 16,000 murders annually
and around 40,000 die in traffic accidents.

>From this official government source

http://tinyurl.com/yq9aqz

the first number
is the number of murders in 2006
in the 23 referenced cities
that had over 100 murders in 2006.

The second number is the
city's population
and the last a number
one I have calculated of
that city's expected number of murders
based upon the average for the 23 cities.

>From this you can see
that New York
has less than half
the expected number of murders
and that
Baltimore, Birmingham, Detroit,
New Orleans, Newark, Oakland,
and St. Louis have
more than twice as many
as they should have
even among the top US murder cities.

110   485,804 ATLANTA 85

276   637,556 BALTIMORE 102

104   233,577 BIRMINGHAM 34

467 2,857,796 CHICAGO 476

187 1,248,223 DALLAS 204

417   884,462 DETROIT 153

377 2,073,729 HOUSTON 357

140   800,969 INDIANAPOLIS 136

110   795,822 JACKSONVILLE 136

112   448,218 KANSAS CITY 68

152 1,315,625 LAS VEGAS 221

480 3,879,455 LOS ANGELES 663

147   680,828 MEMPHIS 119

103   581,005 MILWAUKEE 102

162   431,153 NEW ORLEANS 68

596 8,165,001 NEW YORK 1394

105   280,877 NEWARK 51

145   398,834 OAKLAND 68

406 1,464,576 PHILADELPHIA 258

234 1,517,443 PHOENIX 255

119 1,292,116 SAN ANTONIO 221

129   346,879 ST. LOUIS 51

169   581,530 WASHINGTON DC  102

31,401,448 total population in the above 23 cities

5247 murders
took place in the above 23 cities
in 2006
for an average of 14 per day
for all the 23 cities combined
or an  average annual rate of
17 per hundred thousand in the 23 cities.

The 23 cities have
less than ten percent
of the country's population -
and over thirty percent of the murders.

Coincidently,
in Canada where I live
Metropolitan Toronto would have
(by these same standards)
about 850 murders.
However, with the crime wave
that we have been having -
there have still been only around 90
and the rate per hundred thousand
for Toronto and Canada is around
2 per hundred thousand
instead of the 17 for the US cities above -
saying that is better that eight times safer
here than there.
Canadians often discuss the US gun culture.

Now to compare this to Iraq.

Iraq's 27,499,638 population
is about ten percent less
than the US's 23 top murder cities combined
	http://tinyurl.com/2zevcd)
and assuming that the whole of Iraq
is as uncivilized as these 23 US cities
then Iraq should be experiencing
4675 murders annually or
about 13 murders per day.

I don't think that I am really hearing
of murders in Iraq -
with the reports these days of
20 deaths per day caused  by terrorists -
(although yesterday
it was over 200 killed
for the one day).

In actuality -
the estimated total number of civilian deaths
in Iraq
varies from 60,000 to 160,000 or more
since 2002.
I personally think that the lower number -
based upon daily bomb reports
is a gross understatement
because we never hear how many succumb
in the days following -
and compared to homicide figures -
in the US -
which are usually individuals -
there are a multiple of that number
injured in the explosions.
Many of these are children -
who lose limbs,
or who are brain damaged,
or who are otherwise incapacitated
for life.

Homes destroyed -
families broken up -
children orphaned -
all these numbers -
(and really no one is counting) -
but I personally feel
that ten times the highest number -
or 1.6 million -
would still be a conservative estimate
of what a civilian faces as a threat.

That would work out to about
a quarter million casualties per year.
or over 700 per day.

Whatever.
As I said -
nobody's counting -
but I am just explaining
how I arrived at the figure.

Not only is nobody counting -
nobody in North America cares.
For them -
it is only 'our boys' that count -
and as of today -
'our boys' are over 3600.
Anyway, even of those injured there
if they leave alive
on a plane -
and are dead when they reach Germany -
they don't count.
And neither are the civilian contractors counted -
although -
by some accounts their numbers are said
to be even greater.

Working with just the 3600 number.
That is 600 per year,
which works out to 37
per hundred thousand.
(There are 160,000
US troops in Iraq).
That is still more than double the rate
for the 23 US top murder cities.
AND I think the US casualty number
is GREATLY understated -
and that many more
never make it back from Germany -
or leave Walter Reed if they do.
And even for those -
many are handicapped for life.

What I really think
causes the 37 per hundred thousand number
to be an understatement
is that its calculation
is spread out over the last six years
and the RATE of casualties
has been rapidly increasing
in the last few months.

If the rate has doubled -
then the number is really 74
per hundred thousand -
and if I am correct about it being understated -
for the reasons I have given above -
with many dying before being discharged stateside -
then it could well be over 100
per hundred thousand.

Just as for the civilians in Iraq -
I think the comparison of US soldier casualties
to US murder rates
is very misleading.
Because once again -
murder in the US is an individual thing -
and casualties in Iraq are a group thing.
One soldier in the Humvee may die -
from an IED explosion -
but four  soliders more will go back
to the US as casualties.

By my calculations -
the danger to soldiers in Iraq
is five to eight times greater
than living in the top US murder cities -
and I think it is terribly unjust to them
to callously suggest otherwise.

Of course the risk in any city -
also depends upon the neighborhood -
and what you are doing
in that neighborhood.

I remember stepping out
of a Holiday Inn door
onto a street in Detroit
and having a police cruiser pull up
and tell me to go back in the motel
that it was not safe on the streets.
Probably not -
for an old white guy -
in that black neighborhood.

Inside the motel - okay.
Inside the green areas in Iraq - okay.
Some US military NEVER go out of the green areas.
Good for their individual casualty rate.
Probably not as bad as being in
the top US murder cities.

But for those who have to go out
on the confrontations -
the deaths per hundred thousand
(it is only a rate -
because there are not a hundred thousand
going out on the patrols)
but for them I would guess that the 'rate'
would be three or four hundred
per hundred thousand -
a far cry from the 17 per hundred thousand
for the people living in
the top 23 US murder cities.

I just do not think
it is respectful of the soldiers
doing that service
to say they are in no more danger
than living in Washington D.C. -
when the danger to them is hundreds of times greater
than I face in my little rural village in Canada.

Okay -
I know others will say -
that this is all un-American -
that the US is winning the war -
and that I should be 'supportive'
of our soldiers.

Truthfully,
I don't know what is for good or evil
about the effort going on there -
but I just think that the statistics
that I am being presented with by the war advocates -
are bunk -
so I calculate my own.
You may not like the way I did it -
but it is my honest opinion.

----------

Another little thing -
that bugs me
about the civilian casualty number
is the superiority of Christians who say -
"Well, it is mostly just
Muslims killing Muslims -
that is the way 'those' people
view life."

Not like Christians
don't kill Christians.
I am old enough
to remember a war
where German Protestants
were fighting English Protestants
and Italian Catholics
were fighting French Catholics.

Today - I have read a number of accounts
of different Shiite groups battling
other Shiite groups
and different Sunni groups battling
other Sunni groups.

Lack of unity -
is a present human condition -
NOT a cultural condition.
Consequently,
there is no way
to side with one group
against the others.

All of the different groups have virtues.
While I continuously read rants
by Christians against the Muslims -
I can see many virtues
among the Muslims
that would benefit the Christians.
And vice-versa of course.

----------
Well,
here is today's news.
Or I think it better
to characterize it as
today's rumour:

Turkey massing 140,000 troops
By BUSHRA JUHI,
Associated Press Writer
Mon Jul 9, 10:25 AM ET

BAGHDAD - Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers on its border with northern
Iraq, ... If the (figures) are accurate, Turkey would have nearly as many
soldiers along its border with Iraq as the 155,000 troops which the U.S. has
in the country.

http://tinyurl.com/24yvc8

Anyway,
something is cooking
in Turkey.

And something is cooking
in Syria.

And something is cooking
in Israel.

And something is cooking
in Iran.

We have talked about Syria
calling home its students
from Lebanon.
Well now they have broadened the call
to all their citizens in Lebanon.

We have talked about Israel
doing major military exercises
in the Golan Heights.

Today's news about Iran
is that satellites have discovered
major new tunnels being dug
into the mountains.

Cook, cook, cook.
And also in Washington,
Russia,
Europe,
and everywhere else.

There may be confrontations
between Sunnis and Sunnis in Iraq -
but this coming week
there will also be confrontations
between Republicans and Republicans
in Washington.

Also between
the Executive
and the Legislature.

Also between the media
and the media.
What is called a 'sea change'
is taking place in American thinking.
'Supporting the troops'
may no longer mean -
'Staying the Course'.

Again -
I am not saying what is for good or evil.
I am just an observer -
and I am seeing a number of conflicts
coming to a head.

It may seem ridiculous
to some -
that I am concerned about
US casualties in Iraq -
and more ridiculous still
that I am concerned about
Iraqi civilian casualties -
when I think that the whole world
is about to have eighty percent fatalities.

But -
that is the nature of being human -
to be concerned -
and I suppose -
to be inconsistent.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org