[Arktwo] Current facts

[Bruce Beach]

We all get the same facts -
or can do so if we wish.
It is how we interpret them
that makes the difference.

The main conventional wisdom
that I am hearing
from a number of analysts
that I respect -
is that Bush will do nothing
until after the November elections.

I respectively disagree -
and the following are my reasons:

1. The arms build-up by Hezbollah
will progress too rapidly
to wait that many weeks.

	The Syrian border
	is already proving a sieve.

		a. UNIFIL will not disarm Hezbollah.

		b. UNIFIL will not stop any arms,
		   even if it sees them.

		c. Planes have been reported arriving
		   in Syria
		   from Iran with arms
		   being delivered to Hezbollah
		   by routes that do not go by
		   UNIFIL inspection stations.

2. Hamas activity in Gaza is continuing to accelerate.

		a. Rockets continue to rain on Israel.

3. Since 2003, Iran has been given deadlines.

		a. Which they have not met.

		b. The present talks with EU
		   are way, way past all deadlines,
		   and still they stall with talks,
		   so there is almost zero likelihood
		   that diplomacy will result
		   in anything but talk.

4. From the window announced two years ago
   by knowledgeable nuclear experts -
   Iran since starting the enrichment process
   should be quite close to having a weapon.

	[Current contentions are going on
	 between UN IAEA chief Muhammad El-Baradei,
	 and the US regarding Iran's status.
	 El-Baradei stated a long time ago -
	 that once Iran attained centrifuge capability
	that it would 'soon' have weapon capability.
	IAEA uncovered a number of weapon effort
	'secret documents' in Iran -
	and Iran won't let them into many 'sensitive sites' -
	but El-Baradei and company now waffle
	about how close Iran may be -
	because they know that Bush and company
	is trigger happy and
	they really don't want to set off WW3.]

5. The current European naval arms build-up
   and the US troop topping off in Iraq
   will begin to be strained and needing rotation
   before November.

6. Iran anticipates something sooner
   and is keeping its troops in 'exercise' mode
   for the next 30 days.

7. Political unrest in Israel
   could fracture the present coalition
   and some event similar to Sharon's stroke
   is more liable to intervene
   the longer a delay occurs -
   so it is best for Israel to strike
   while the situation is known.

8. The political situation in the US
   continues to deteriorate.

	a. More and more people feel that
	   they were misled (or more strongly -
	   lied to by the current administration
	   about Iraq having WMD -
	   and being the source of an OBL attack.)

	b. The percentage of people that feel
	   the US should get out of Iraq
	   continues to grow.

	c. There are a growing number of people
	   in the US who are questioning
	   the WTC report and who are beginning
	   to give some credence to "conspiracy"
	   theories.

9. Election controversy and a Republican loss
   would not be favourable to Bush decision making
   vis-à-vis the Pentagon and halls of power
   outside of the neocon circles. Therefore,
   for the Bush doctrine it would be better
   that Israel start something and that the US
   tag a long.

10. There are growing rumours and reports
    in the news and on the net
    that Islamists are accelerating
    their threats and warning's
    and have given some required 'third and final' warning -
    and that some terrorist attack on the US is imminent.

	a. Should this actually occur

	b. or should this occur as a 'false flag'

	c. either of the above makes no difference
	   in regards to the automatic response
	   that would arise in general US Public
	   attitude and opinion.

----------
As I have said -
better analysts than myself -
hold the general consensus that -
not until after the elections -
but -
here I stand -
even if alone -
hopefully, (unless otherwise is God's will) -
wrong.

Nevertheless,
given all the above -
I am expecting something -
(I know not what)
to set it off sometime -
within less than thirty days.

You too,
have all the same facts.
You too,
will have to make your own judgement.
You too,
will have to take -
or not take -
such actions as you will -
or will not.

In the days immediately ahead -
I anticipate that you will hear all sorts
of positive information.

Progress in the talks between the EU and Iran.
Hamas and the PA arriving at a 'unity' government.
Israel and Lebanon agreeing to talks.
World leaders, one after the other,
saying encouraging and positive things.

It all means naught.
Actions alone will determine.
Iran will continue to prohibit the UN
from looking at its secret nuclear sites.
Iranian planes will continue to land in Syria.
Hamas will continue to shower rockets on Israel.
Iraq will continue to disintegrate in religious strife.
Islamic leaders will continue to make inflammatory statements.
Enrolment in Hezbollah and training of terrorists will continue to increase.
North Korea will continue to rattle the nuclear chain.
Russian, Chinese, US, Pakistani, India, European forces will continue to
position themselves.

Talk and actions.
Watch the actions.
No need to watch for a sign -
all the signs have been given.
Either act now -
or don't.
Your choice.

How greatly I wish -
that more would step forward -
to help ready the Ark.

There will always be more
that we could have done to prepare -
but God willing -
we will be sufficiently prepared.

In my previous newsletter -
I made a severe mis-statement
that many readers thankfully caught
and corrected me on.

I stated that Kt stood for
thousands of pounds of dynamite
and that Mt stood for
millions of pounds of dynamite.

Kt stands for thousands of TONs
and
Mt stands for millions of TONs.
This means my statements were off
by a factor of 2,000
because there are 2,000 pounds in a ton.

I knew all that.
Just getting old
and sometimes say things wrong.
Eccch.
But thanks for catching me on that.
In truth -
I have now forgotten more about this subject -
than most people have ever known :(

Now comes the kicker.
It is not tons of dynamite
but tons of TNT
which is twice as powerful as dynamite.
That means that I was off by a factor of 4,000
and that all the explosions
that I was talking about
would have been 4,000 times greater
than I said.

However,
I was correct about the ratios
or relative size
of the old weapons to the new.
The problem is -
that all these numbers are so astronomical
that like I said in the newsletter -
we just get confused between millions and billions.

In any case,
as the saying goes -
one nuclear weapon can ruin your day.

I actually wrote
this present newsletter -
some days ago -
but it didn't get sent out
because of server problems.

I have just been watching things tick along.
9/11 came and went -
as well as 9/12
with all the dire predictions for those dates.

New dates -
and new predictions upcoming.
Just that 'no man knows the hour'.
Surely when it happens -
someone will have predicted it -
because there always seems to be someone
predicting most every day.

Sometime in the next ten days -
would be quite reasonable -
given the way events are.

I tell people that if at this moment
I had to pick a single time -
without waffling -
it would be the first week in October.

But,
of course I will waffle.
The post election people may be right -
and I may be saying these same type of things
in December.

One just never knows.
The time is right.
The Embassy bombing in Damascus
could  have set it all off -
if it had been more successful.

One of the most astounding things to me
this week -
is that China is sending
a thousand troops to Lebanon.

Zechariah 12: Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the
people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and
Jerusalem. And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all
people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though
all people of the earth be gathered together against it.

Great Jehosaphat ! -
even the Chinese joining in.
Who would have thunk it.

And speaking of Jehoshaphat
many modern scholars,
understand the Bible reference to the
valley of Jehoshaphat to be one of
an idealized and non-literal scene of judgment
associated with Armageddon.
Nevertheless -
it is interesting to look up the quotes in Joel -
and the geography in a Bible Atlas.

Words written over 2,000 years ago
seem to be progressing towards
literal fulfillment today.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org