[Arktwo] deja vu

[Bruce Beach]

You had to be there -
and you weren't really -
at an age to remember it
unless you are over 60.

A ship zinging along its course
bringing the world closer and closer
to possible nuclear holocaust.

The Cuban Missile Crisis,
October 18-29, 1962
was 44 years ago
this week.

Back then -
TV was a new thing
especially out on the prairies
where I lived.
But still people gathered around them
in hotels, bars and
at the windows of stores that sold them.

There were being shown U2 pictures
of Cuban missile sites -
maps showing the location and approach
of the Russian ship,
grave announcements by the president
and other notables such as the Secretary of State.

Lots of shelters being installed then -
although probably more now -
but it was a much smaller population.
People were seriously concerned.

Quite different today.
The populace has become jaded
to end of the world scenarios.
It is all play drama -
Jericho,
The Day After -
and so forth.
Media hype about -
Y2K
Anthrax
SARS
Avian Flu
Asteroid collision
Suitcase nukes
a thousand terrorist threats -
you name it -
but nothing happens.

So this week -
the stock market reached
an all time high,
the price of oil went down
and oil production was intentionally curtailed.
For some people -
things just seem to get better and better.

For others -
like Israel -
worse and worse.

France told Israel
that it will shoot down
the Israeli planes
if they keep trying to look
where Hezbollah is building up
its new fortifications.

http://tinyurl.com/yz8bce

Italy topped that -
they said they would provide Lebanon
with the newest modern ground to air missiles
so that they could shoot the planes down
themselves.

China and Russia insisted that the Security Council
assure Iran that there would be
no military intervention
for their continuing to enrich uranium.

Prime Minister Olmert of Israel
went with hat in hand
to plea with Russia to help make Iran stop.

When they came out of the meeting
Olmert in the joint press conference
said the situation was very serious
and that Israel absolutely could not permit
Iran to have the bomb.

President Putin of Russia
just stood there and told
sexual jokes about the Jews.

Twenty-two Arab nations lined up
against Israel -
including of course Iran and Syria.
Plus all sorts of terrorist organizations
such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

I don't know
what date the Italian missiles
are scheduled to arrive in Lebanon.

There has always been the question
of what date
the TOR missiles
that Russia has been paid for
are to arrive in Iran.

In recent newsletters
I noted that Russia has sent
Chechen troops into Lebanon,
is opening a major seaport in Syria -
and is supplying Syria with missiles.
Russia is certainly making its stance clear.

Reports are that
massive amounts of arms are
re-equipping and expanding
both the Hezbollah and Hamas organizations.

I wish to call a summary of the above facts
Point A
and that is that
EVERY day that Israel delays -
massive additional arms and forces
are aligned against them.

Now on to my next point.

First, that the political situation
is rapidly deteriorating in the US.

Things could hardly be worse for
"Mission Accomplished"
"Bring it on"
"Stay the course"
"You are doing a wonderful job Brownie"
Bush.

"...three out of four likely voters now believe that Bush has been
overactive in policing the world — an astonishing statistic."

http://tinyurl.com/y5vjau

Indeed,
I very much doubt that Bush
could today walk into the Situation Room
at the White House
and say to the assembled Generals and Admirals -
"I have decided -
as a war president -
and a decider -
that we are going to strike Iran tomorrow."

I think there would be a revolt
of the generals.
That is not to say -
that if Iran invades Iraq -
or attacks a US ship -
or some dramatic event
(real or staged) happens
such as a terrorist attack on the US -
that they won't all fall in line.

Similarly -
(from the same above source)

"In Israel the situation is moving swiftly from dire to disastrous.
Confronted with rape charges, Moshe Kasav, the president of Israel, is now
facing public scandal as he awaits indictment for a disgraceful sex crime.
This is merely the latest Israeli scandal to reverberate through the Middle
East, weakening Bush’s leverage on the most critical region for his
beleaguered presidency. Like his predecessors, Netanyahu and Sharon, Ehud
Olmert is now undergoing suspicion of financial corruption, and his
government is teeter-tottering on the brink of collapse from their deepening
unpopularity following their loss of the war with Hizbullah."

Thirdly,
the overall world political mechanisms
such as the UN and the Security Council
failed miserably in the last month
to restrain North Korea from developing nukes.
This certainly places the writing on the wall -
if it were not apparent before -
that they are not going to restrain Iran.

I wish to call a summary of the above facts
Point B
and that is that
EVERY day that Israel delays -
the political situation
in the US, Israel and the world
is deteriorating against them.

Now, to a third point -
which I have been making repeatedly
throughout the last several newsletters.

The US, UNIFIL, NATO (in Afghanistan),
and Israel itself -
have been in a massive arms build-up,
in preparation for attacking Iran.

We have discussed
repeatedly and at length
about the arrival of the Ike
on March 21st.
I searched the news exhaustively today -
but could find no update on that,
although one report is that
seven US carriers are now deployed.

Moreover,
the news this week -
in addition to extensive lists of ships
that I have given you in the past
is that:

Tuesday, Oct. 17, the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group steamed into the
Persian Gulf to join the US naval, air and marine concentration piling up
opposite Iran’s shores. It consists of the amphibious transport dock USS
Nashville, the guided-missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, the
guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, the attack submarine USS
Albuquerque, and the dock landing ship USS Whidbey Island.

The Iwo Jima group is now cruising 60 km from Kuwait off Iran’s coast.

http://tinyurl.com/y2uwvx
---

I wish to call a summary of the above facts
Point C
and that is that
EVERY day that Israel delays -
from this point on -
the military forces available
to the US will probably degrade.

The Ike will complete its rotation
with the Enterprise
and the Enterprise Task Force -
(one of the largest in the US Navy)
will head home.

Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan
(both for the US and its Allies)
will start returning to the US
without replacement.

---
To summarize the above three points
as to why Israel will strike immediately:

Point A:
EVERY day that Israel delays -
massive additional arms and forces
are aligned against them.

Point B:
EVERY day that Israel delays -
the political situation
in the US, Israel and the world
is deteriorating against them.

Point C:
EVERY day that Israel delays -
from this point on -
the military forces available
to the US (and Israel)
will probably degrade.

---
So -
what is the hold-up?
I don't know that there is one -
and tonight being the New Moon -
Israel may attack tonight.

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=nation_world&id=4677996

October 19, 2006 (JERUSALEM) - Israel's prime minister (Olmert) delivered
his strongest comments yet on Iran's nuclear program, warning Thursday that
Tehran would have "a price to pay" if it does not back down from its atomic
ambitions and hinting that Israel might be forced to take action.

On the other hand -
it could be possible
that the political situation in Israel
is preventing it.

---
"Last Thursday, Olmert convened a special consultation on Iran, after a long
interim. A preview in Haaretz about the discussion aroused pressure from
government ministers who wanted to participate, and the forum was expanded.
According to the participants, Vice Premier Shimon Peres was the most
pessimistic of the speakers, warning that only an American attack could
delay, if not entirely stop, the Iranian bomb."

"The work here is work for powers," Dichter summed up, "and Israel is not a
power."

"There is no possibility, reason or way Israel would lead such a move,"
asserted Dichter.

(Avi Dichter is the
Israeli Public Security Minister)

http://tinyurl.com/y3ol4b

---
The US is in a similar quandary.
This article this (Saturday) evening:

http://tinyurl.com/y976tc

BAGHDAD, Iraq - A senior U.S. diplomat said the United States had shown
"arrogance" and "stupidity" in Iraq but was ready to talk with any group
except Al-Qaida in Iraq to facilitate national reconciliation.

(Hmmmm.
I am sure Saddam is willing
to take back over.)

---
In any case -
news reports are appearing
in substantial publications everywhere -
that the US is preparing to attack Iran.

http://harpers.org/TheNextWar.html

The game plan as I see it -
is that Israel will attack -
Iran will counter-attack on US forces -
and the US will join in.

If all this rapidly deteriorates
into WW3 as I anticipate -
then you should ask yourself -
where will you go
and how will you get there.

Consider this month's news item:
Biggest U.S. cities not ready to evacuate:

http://tinyurl.com/yx8ueb

Consequently -
the current government advice is to
shelter where you are.
This advice fits right up there with -
"buy more plastic and duct tape".
To which my reply is:
"They are great for making body bags."

Forty-four years ago -
I thought nuclear war was imminent.
Events have now transpired -
that I think so -
even more so now.
However,
then there were relatively few
who prepared -
and even fewer as a percentage
who are preparing today.

But for me
as Yogi Bear
(or Berra - whichever) said -
it is deja vu
all over again.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org