[Arktwo] Coming Full Circle

[Bruce Beach]

Readers have been asking me
why I haven't written for 13 days.

Three reasons:
1. Exceptionally busy prepping.
2. Trying to write a complicated webpage
	on radioactive contamination.
3. Events changing too rapidly to comprehend.

Mostly -
it has been the third reason.
Twice I have made outlines
for a newsletter -
and before I could send it -
the world changed.

Eight days ago -
I was anticipating my 'poetic day'.
The modern event of Sodom and Gomorrah -
when the Gay Parade was to take place
in Jerusalem.

The parade -
and the 'end of the world'
by my poetic justification
was cancelled.

Then -
for weeks -
I had been pointing to the immense
naval build-up
in Middle East.
There was a window -
in which 7 carriers
(US allied but not all US)
were together in the area.
Also three strike forces -
plus many other substantial
naval resources.

Suddenly -
the Enterprise sailed for home,
a few other ships in what the Navy called -
the 'Lebanon Surge'
called it a day -
and headed home -
as did two strike submarines
as well as some of the other
above mentioned naval resources
such as some minesweepers and such.

It appeared that
the thrust of the great armada
had been called off -
and the task forces had turned
and sailed away.
Before I could hardly assimilate
that news -
some tempering news arrived
that the Boxer Strike Force
with some special
exceptionally powerful ships and resources
had actually joined the Fifth Fleet -
with the Ike at its center -
and that most of the firepower
was still there.
Is it -
or isn't it?
I really can't figure it out
at this moment.

News Quote:
"USS Boxer Strike Group, entered the Persian Gulf Thursday, Nov. 9, the
largest US landing force in this water in a decade."

Then there was the US election -
and the supposed Sea Change
that took place there -
but which many insightful commentators
have since come to the conclusion
that it was all smoke and mirrors.
Rumsfeld out -
Gates in -
and the Cheney Iraq / Iran game plan
remains the same.

Oh,
I am well aware of Gates
being the author of a supposedly different
game plan of diplomatic negotiation with Iran -
but I am talking about
what is really being planned
and what is actually going to happen
rather than what is being breezed about
and presented on the surface.

This is not to deny
that there are many
factions / factors / forces
at work here -
and it is impossible to predict
which, if any, will prevail.

There are strong pro neo-con generals
in the Pentagon -
as well as those who successfully aligned themselves
against Rumsfeld.
There are some anti-Israeli individuals
in the US Congress
but they are very few -
and the new Chairperson of the House -
is very pro-Israel.

One faction in the State Department
managed last week
to send a strong statement
to Israel
warning them to not attack Iran.
But -
the retiring Israeli Ambassador
to the US
held a press conference this week
saying that he personally knows
G.W. Bush very well -
and that George will be there -
when Israel needs him.

Olmert of course met with George -
after the US election -
and they commiserated
about the political situation
in both the US and Israel -
but more importantly -
they were in complete agreement -
(so far as I can tell)
about the situation regarding Iran.

Olmert then continued on
to the Jewish GA Conference in LA -
where he was the keynote speaker -
but it was Netanyahu that spoke the keynote.
("It is 1938 all over again -
and the world has turned a deaf ear
to the plight of the Jews.
Never again is now -
unless Israel acts for Israel")

You can believe that -
or not -
and some in Israel don't -
but those who are in power do -
and that is what counts.

There again -
in the last ten days -
my view of the situation
regarding the power structure
in Israel reversed itself.
I thought that there was a power struggle
in the Israeli cabinet -
with some peace forces preventing
a cohesive action.

I had misperceived
that the Israel Labor politicians
were all of the 'peace party'
but then those who remained in the Cabinet
all voted for the Iran Strategist
('the solution is to bomb Iran') Lieberman,
and the new Deputy Defense Minister Sneh -
(appointed of course at the request
of the Labor member Defense Minister)
came out this week and said -
"Sometimes the action of last resort -
is the only action possible."
Although he is a retired general -
his being a medical doctor -
and in the Labor Party -
led me to anticipate an opposite position.

So -
there we have it.
All the key players are of one mind.
It took until two weeks ago -
and the installation of Lieberman and Sneh -
(and the withdrawal of one cabinet member)
to get them to that point -
and that may be why they missed
the Enterprise / Ike window.

But now -
all are in agreement -
Olmert and his cabinet -
Bush, Cheney and their neo-cons -
with the possible exception
of Gates -
if you were to agree with some observers.
But that latter may just be misconception also.

So there -

in two weeks time -
there were FOUR
360 degree turns
in my own perceptions.

1. The naval fleet arrived, left, and is said to be present again.
2. The US election rejected the Bush Iraq policy -
	which was declared dead -
	and yet it has been resurrected again.
3. The Israel Cabinet was
	formed, deformed and reformed,
	and is now unified
	with the policy / philosophy of
	Lieberman, Sneh and Netanyahu
	(the latter not as a member of cabinet -
	 but of like mind.)
4. And my 'poetic day' was off, on and off.

If in that time frame -
I had written a newsletter to you -
I would have had to write twelve.
Four stating one way -
and four stating the reverse -
and four more stating the reverse again.
Be thankful that I spared you.

So,
how do I see the situation now.
Well,
that really isn't important.
The question is -
how does Israel see the situation now.
Or more specifically -
what is the view of
those in power to make the decision.

Here is a list of news items
from just this week.

1. UN has today passed a resolution
condemning the Israeli shelling
in Gaza two weeks ago.
(The Israeli representative to the UN
walked out.)

2. The European Union has said
they wish to send a peace force
to protect the Palestinians -
like the one they have in Lebanon.

3. The Arab states have said
that the will stop embargoing
arm shipments to the Palestinians.

4. Hezbollah is receiving major arms
and preparing a direct attempt
to overthrow the government in Lebanon.

5. Hamas is receiving major arms and funds
and appears on the verge of
gaining control of the government
from the Palestinian Authority.
The latter with the approval of the European Union.

6. Rocket attacks have increased from Gaza.

7. Russia has sent a military force
into Lebanon -
separate from the UNIFIL force.

8. French gunners are tracking
and 'locking onto" Israeli overflights
in Lebanon.

9. Iran yesterday made a formal complaint to the UN
that Israel is 'threatening' them.

10. Iran announced that it will 'complete'
its nuclear program by March.

11. Russian arms are being shipped into Syria.

12. Evaluation of Iran's "Prophet II" exercise
shows that Iran is developing very advanced weaponry.

13. The IAEA reports that Iran shows no evidence
of conforming to the UN resolutions.

This is just this week's news.
I see no evidence
that things are getting better for Israel -
or any prospects that they will -
or that the world is going to prevent
Iran from getting the bomb.

On the contrary -
I think Israel's evaluation will be
that every day they put off
resolving the situation regarding Iran
the worse off they will be.

I think that on Sunday -
Olmert will have returned
and the timetable decision will be made
in the Cabinet meeting.
As early as -
about a week after that ----!

That is not to say -
that in the destiny of things
that I think Israel will throw the first bomb.
There are many hotspots -
and innumerable unexpected events
that can set it off -
all the way from some accident -
to a US or Israeli false flag incident.
Iran certainly has a mind of its own -
and pre-emption is considered to be the advantage -
according to all strategists.

While I think sooner -
some prominent geopolitical strategists
think that two critical windows exist.

"The two sensitive timelines are December 2006 to February 2007 and the
summer months between May and August 2007."

I am not certain
as why those have been picked.
It may partially be for weather -
and it may partially be
for geopolitical reasons.
I am sticking with NOW.

I have to admit
that I would like to be more ready.
Really short on help here.
Would greatly love it -
if someone would like to come and help
for a couple of weeks -
or perhaps a family has even a young lad
in his late teens of early twenties -
that they would be willing to farm out.

##############

Here is a news item
off the 'ticker tape' in the last  hour:

"Jordanian 9/11 defendant
found not guilty of perjury
by US court."

Now what in the world
is THAT all about?
Can't find it anywhere yet
on the US MSM news channels.
But then -
I am always finding, looking at -
discussing -
all sorts of news items
that get little or no play
in the MSM.

I guess it is just
my strange way
of looking at the world.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org