[Arktwo] Escalation

[Bruce Beach]

The situation continues to escalate 
in Lebanon. 
So much so that we hear hardly anything 
about Gaza, and many other spots 
that were in the news.

Israel used stun grenades 
on Friday at the Temple in Jerusalem.
I don't remember every hearing of that before.

Israel hit two UN observations posts. 
Killing several UN observers. 

Israel killed many children this morning.

Israel is intensifying its air offensive.

Israel is calling up more of its reserves. 

Exactly as I said 
in my previous newsletter:

"Just equilibrium in conflict,
waiting to be pushed in one direction -
into greater conflict."

There are no other alternatives 
that appear on the present horizon.

Hezbollah has also greatly escalated 
its activities. 
It is now using (with Iran's permission)
much longer range 
and more powerful 
missiles.

The president of Lebanon 
is calling for support 
from other Arab countries. 
Syria is now making noises 
about entering directly into the fray.

The escalation meter just goes 
up, up, up, 
by the hour.

The US Secretary of State 
was told that she was presently 
persona non-gratis in Lebanon. 
World opinion and Arab statements 
that had been somewhat supportive of Israel 
are now more and more 
turning solidly against Israel. 

The calls for cease fire 
and truce 
mount. 

None of that is going to happen.
For Israel to return to the previous 
status quo -
would mean not only victory for Hezbollah 
and Hamas 
in the present action - 
but that they would then be free 
to build up a much greater force 
for the next go-around. 

In the meantime - 
out of the world glare -
and practically uncensored -
Iran continues to accelerate its push on 
the nuclear front. 

Israel can't permit that to happen. 
As I pointed out in my three part series 
on "What is Happening" - 
Israel (its generals) well understood 
what would happen when it withdrew 
from Gaza and the West Bank 
and that rockets from there would  fall 
on Southern Israel. 

Israel well understood 
that when it retaliated for the capture 
of the soldiers - 
that it would receive missiles 
from the south and the north.

Israel knew that missiles 
were pouring into Gaza through Egypt 
and into Palestine and Lebanon 
through Syria - 
and that the longer range missiles 
would eventually be used against it. 

This was all seen as inevitable - 
and while some in Israel 
and many in the Arab countries 
saw the retreat by Israel 
from Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank 
as being defeat for Israel 
and VICTORY for the Arabs - 
I decidedly pointed out 
that it was only a tactical ploy 
in Israel's overall strategy 
to bring the Jews within the castle walls -
to establish a moat - 
and to define the killing ground. 

The expected and predicted strategy moves on.
All the talk 
about Israel being surprised 
at the strength of the Arab response -
and all the talk 
about disagreement in Israel about what to do -
is just talk. 

The strategy is in place. 
Tactical advances and retreats 
are all just part of 
the fortunes of war.

Israel continues to increase the moat, 
to define the killing ground - 
and to prepare for when it will 
confront Syria and Iran. 

Escalation will continue. 
No other alternatives are on the horizon. 
Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood,   
are not about to announce 
that Israel should be allowed to exist 
in peace.

Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, 
are all on the edge of the vortex 
and will be drawn in -
and then Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistanp 
Both the above lists probably in that order -
(as will eventually be the rest of the world)
no matter what cooler minds may prefer.

The issue is the timetable. 
It could all happen in a matter of hours -
or it may take days - 
even weeks.

It is possible that 
events in Turkey and Iraq 
can accelerate the activities there 
but the tinder box is now on fire. 

As I said in my newsletters - 
some issues ago - 
things are not about to happen - 
they are now happening.

Whatever may be your preferences -
among the combatants - 
I simply report what is -
and what I expect to be. 

To the chagrin of many 
who read (or leave) my newsletter -
my personal preference is 
an effective world government 
that prevents such conflagrations. 

However, 
what is - is.
What shall be - 
both in the short 
and long runs -
shall be.

If Arabs want peace - 
why don't they simply return 
the four captured soldiers 
and stop firing the rockets?
The world would insist that Israel 
observe the truce 
and Israel would again retreat 
out of Lebanon 
because it doesn't have the manpower 
to do otherwise.

Israel can fight short wars - 
but all those called up reserves 
are civilians that have practically shutdown 
economic production at home. 
The present situation - 
for Israel -
can only be of short duration. 
The war for it is at home - 
with its northern cities now practically deserted. 
Not like for the US -
which sends all its troubles overseas.
Nope, for Israel -
this can't go on for long.

As I have mentioned -
world opinion continues to mount 
against Israel (and the US).
They are becoming more and more isolated - 
in their strategy. 

Iran, North Korea, China versus Taiwan, 
Cuba, Venezuela, Pakistan, and numbers of others -
love it. 
All eyes are focused - 
and all shouts are against Israel and the US - 
and the rest for the moment 
are being largely ignored 
and are getting for the moment 
a free ride.

I receive each day 
many, many, many 
emotional anti-Israel emails. 

Every mishap, child fatality, mounting casualty -
is reason again for them to curse Israel.
Accompanying these curses 
there are often diatribes about how Israel 
is not the 'true' Israel that was to be restored -
and how the present occupants are not 
the 'true Jews'.

Whichever. 
The present occupants of Israel are fighting 
for their survival, 
and that fight is going to be carried 
to the world.

The media propaganda against Israel is immense.
Take the killing of the UN soldiers for example.
A well known - 
highly honoured - 
Canadian General has stated  
that he received emails from the Canadian soldier 
killed at the UN observation post stating - 

a. The Arabs were coming into UN area 
to fire their rockets from there 
so as to draw Israeli fire upon them. 

b. That they were going to be abandoning the post 
in the next few days and were requesting permission  
to leave immediately - 
but the UN administration would not let them.

c. That they had repeatedly observed the Arabs 
bringing rockets and missiles into the area 
as forbidden by UN directive - 
but were not permitted to stop them. 

----------
Add to the above the number of instances 
which have been proven in the past 
where the Arabs used UN vehicles 
and donned UN uniforms - 
is it any wonder that our Canadian soldier got killed?

I think it criminal 
that the press does not point out these facts 
when they come from such a clear 
and authentic source.

Mind you - 
I am not trying to say - 
what is right or wrong - 
on either side. 
Just what is. 
Both will use the strategies they have available.

-------
Here are another two facts:

1. The Arabs continuously target Israeli civilians.
They do this by filling the rockets they fire 
with anti-personnel shrapnel and firing them into 
civilian residential areas. 
These rockets are not armed with explosives designed to destroy  
industrial and military targets 
and are not aimed at those.

2. The Arabs intentionally launch their rockets 
from civilian areas 
(including Christian ones in Lebanon) 
so that they will draw Israeli fire 
on the civilians. 
They do this from the very roofs 
of apartment buildings 
or from courtyards adjacent - 
and then rush into those buildings. 
There are even reports of their preventing civilians 
from leaving the launch areas - 
so that there will be civilian casualties. 

These techniques are great 
for mass media psycho propaganda warfare - 
(although very hard on the kids).
It is a battle that the Arabs are winning world-wide.
But - 
Israel anticipated that also -
and figures that in its overall strategy 
that it must stand alone - 
with the possible help of the US.

It greatly pains me 
to look at the beautiful innocent faces 
of young Arab children 
as they watch the mourners carry away the dead. 
But I know - 
if things continued on - 
that in a few more years they would be out there 
throwing rocks at the Israeli tanks - 
and that in a few more years 
they would be wearing black baklavas over their heads- 
and waving their fists and AK-47s in the air.

It greatly pains me
to see the pictures that I have seen recently 
of young Israeli girls 
painting messages on the sides of Israeli shells. 
Such is the present nature of humanity - 
that hatred is taught everywhere. 

I observe it all - 
judging neither right nor wrong - 
only recognizing what will be the outcome. 

So, 
must proceed events. 
In the short run 
and in the long run. 

Terrible, terrible, terrible 
in the short run. 
But eventually, 
though it takes centuries 
humanity must look beyond 
its prejudices of 
religion 
patriotism 
culture 
race 
class 
and all the many other prejudices  
and must progress to build 
an ever advancing civilization. 

So it is - 
that the DawnSayer builds Ark Two, 
and calls you unto it - 
to make preparation to reconstruct society 
after the catastrophe of the 
Great Final Battle of Armageddon 
that is about to engulf us. 

I know now - 
that few or none will respond. 
A couple of persons contact me each week 
saying that they wish to come visit. 
I tell them - 
"Bring work clothes", 
and never hear from them again. 

But as always -
I put out the word -
that the three most important things you must do are:

	1. "Get out of the cities" -
	2. "Get out of the cities" -
	3. "Get out of the cities".

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org