[Arktwo] What is happening - Two.

[Bruce Beach]

In my previous newsletter
I examined the strategic reasons
that caused Israel
to initially retreat from
Lebanon,
Gaza,
and Settlements in the West Bank.

In summary -
they simply do not have the resources
to defend settlers in those areas -
simultaneously with becoming involved
in a larger conflict.

The problem with retreat
was that it then put major cities of Israel
within the line of fire
of rockets launched from those abandoned locations.

I provided quotes -
in the previous newsletter -
showing that this was the anticipated result
by those very individuals
who engineered the retreat.

Seeing that the present situation was anticipated -
in the overall strategy
we therefore need to comprehend
what is called for by the next steps
of the strategy.

As Israel retreated -
the Islamists of course thought that this indicated
that they were becoming victorious.
My conclusion in the previous newsletter -
was that they were simply being invited
into the killing ground.

We now have Hezbullah and Hamas
(as anticipated in the Israeli strategy)
raining their weapons
upon the Israeli cities.

The specific act
that precipitated the current situation
(the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier)
was coincidental.
Given the nature of the Islamists
it was inevitable
that they would present some opportunity for response.
The bombing act of a terrorist.
The downing of an Israeli airliner.
Some act - somewhere.
This was assured.

The variable was -
when would Israel respond -
and that with Sharon's stroke -
was a variable determined in the end -
by internal affairs -
surrounding Israeli elections
and the consolidation of political will
within Israel.

Externalities also played their role -
such as readiness upon the part of the US -
for Israel to act -
the temper of world opinion -
the popularity or unpopularity
of the activities of others -
such as Iran, Syria, Pakistan, North Korea, etc. -
that would impact the global geopolitical equation.

BUT -
the overall driving factor -
to press forward -
remained the developing situation with Iran.
The Israeli strategy had to provide
the tactical opportunities to
strengthen the castle wall -
bring the Jewish citizens within -
and establish the killing grounds without -
and to create a moat of distance -
from the distracting nuisance of the rockets,
before it would be able to undertake
the primary piece of business.

Israel's strategy is not
to occupy and hold.
Been there.
Done that.
Too resource consuming.

Israel's strategy is not
to inflict random tormenting
damage to the Lebanonese, Syrians,
or any other group.
Doing so serves no purpose -
and creates adverse world opinion.

Israel's strategy is
to position itself
to succeed in the Primary Conflict -
that with Iran.
There -
it feels it must either succeed or die.
Iran states that is its view for Israel -
also.

So now -
Israel must create the moat -
push back the rockets
out of the range of the castle.
Hold down the marauders -
and prepare to attack
when the PTB (Powers That Be)
will permit it or assist it to proceed,
or as a minimum -
when it feels that it must proceed -
even in the face of their opposition.

Unfortunately for Israel -
the PTB are divided.
The US and Britain would be supportive -
but the countervailing powers of
Russia and China are not.

Just as Israel could be certain -
that whenever it was ready -
some event such as the kidnapping of the soldier -
would occur -
it can also rest assured
that a triggering event will occur
or can be manufactured
for it to proceed against Iran.

Perhaps more important -
is the wish for there to be circumstances
that will permit the US to be directly supportive.
The present interplay of events
can well create those circumstances.
World leaders universally recognize
that to be the situation -
and therefore continuously express their concern.

But events have a life of their own -
and conflicts arise out of the attitudes
and philosophies of the combatants.
In this case
the match for lighting the conflagration
has been given to the Islamists.

China, Russia, and the US
have other strategies
for achieving
what they consider their
Manifest Destinies -
and would just as soon
that Iran and the Islamists
would play by their rules instead.

But -
that is not to be -
and so we need to examine a bit -
just who these Islamists are -
and what their goals are.

There is a saying that
one should know their enemy.
I do not wish to consider
the Islamists my enemy -
but I do recognize them to be -
in this case -
one of the two primary combatants -
in the present Israeli conflict -
and therefore I think it is well
to understand them.

Many Americans,
while they have Muslims in their communities -
really do not understand the Islamists -
and who or what they are.
>From the more close minded Americans
I often hear statements that
discount the Muslims as 'ragheads' -
'worshippers of a Moon God' -
camel jockeys -
along with other such derogatory statements.

This is totally unfair -
and inaccurate -
and I am going to try to explain -
in terms meaningful to North Americans -
exactly who the various factions are.

Because most American Christians
would never consider reading the Qur'án
it comes as a surprise to many of them
to learn that the Qur'án teaches -
and that Muslims believe -
in Jesus,
that He was born of the Virgin Mary,
and that He will return in the 'last days'.

Such Christians are astounded to hear
that much of the Qur'án is filled with stories
about the very same people
(Abraham, Moses, Noah, Jonah, and such)
that fill the Bible.

The Qur'án was revealed by God to Muhammad.
(Follow the story -
whether you believe it or not.)
This occurred less than 600 years
after the time of Jesus.
They consider Muhammad to be the Paraclete
promised by Jesus.

Qur'án 61:6 says:
"And remember when Jesus
the son of Mary said,
'O children of Israel!
of a truth I am God's apostle to you
to confirm the law which was given before me, and to announce an apostle
that shall come after me
whose name shall be Ahmad!'"
The Muslims read the Paraclete,
John 16:7, 14:16, 14:26, and 15:26
(also I John 2:1)
as the Periclyte, or Illustrious,
which is the meaning of Ahmad.
	(Gail - Six Lessons on Islam, p. 23)

Many / most Muslims consider Jesus and Muhammad
to be Prophets of equal rank.

After the time of Muhammad
the Islamic Faith split into two branches
in a manner similar to the split of
Christianity in Catholicism and Protestantism.
If you understand the parallels
and follow them in principle
you will have a substantial understanding
of the hierarchical organization of Islam.

Think of the Sunnis
based in Mecca -
with the Black Stone -
towards which all Muslims pray
five times a day -
as being similar to the Catholics
and Rome.

The Sunnis are the major sect of Islam -
just as the Catholics
are the major sect of Christianity.
There are some sub-divisions among them -
just as there are also among the Christians
with Russian and Greek Orthodox Churches
which were in a sense
a part of the Catholic Church.

The major split with the Muslims
was with Shiites -
just as for the Christians -
it was with the Protestants.
The split in this case came
immediately after the passing of Muhammad -
just as in Christianity a similar split
occurred in the LDS church
with the passing of Joseph Smith.

Some agreed to follow the son of the Prophet -
but others did not.
Those who followed Ali -
Muhammad's son -
are the Shiites.

With the passing of Ali -
some then followed appointed Imams.
This did not set well with Sunnis -
and Imams often had a very short life expectancy.
Those who followed only the first five Imams
are called
Fivers -
and those who followed the first seven -
and called
Seveners.
All together there were in succession
one after the other -
twelve Imams -
and those who accept them all are called
Twelvers.
The last Imam sort of just disappeared -
similar to it being said
that Jesus ascended into Heaven.
Anyway -
both the Imam and Jesus are expected to return.
Some call the return of the twelfth Imam
the coming of the Mahdi.

The one thing that all Shiites have in common
is that they all believe in Ali.
You may be better able to understand
how there can be hundreds of different Shiite
and Sunni
groups -
when you think of how many, many different
Christian Protestant groups there are.

There are few people today
in Protestant Christianity
that could tell you the difference between
say Presbyterians and Methodists
or Lutherans and Anglicans,
but at one time they were intense rivals.

Today in Christianity
there is a great smorgasbord
of religious belief -
between Seventh Day Adventists,
Christian Scientists,
and hundreds of other sects -
and there are likewise such distinctions
between the hundreds of Muslim sects.

What the distinctions are -
is not as important to understand -
as is the principle
that there is often intense rivalry
and conflict between them.

This is not a peculiarity of Islam -
because many times in history -
and still today in some locales -
there have broken out intense battles
between Christian Sects.
The Mormons to this day remember
the activities that occurred in Missouri -
and the Jehovah's Witnesses
of how they were persecuted in Quebec
and elsewhere.

While I am not suggesting
that is important to understand
the theological differences of Muslim sects
I am suggesting that in order to understand
what is happening today in the Middle East -
it is important to understand
that those rivalries exist
and that it impacts the strategy of Israel.

In the next and concluding newsletter
on this series of what is happening -
I shall try to draw these threads altogether.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org