[Arktwo] What is happening - One

[Bruce Beach]

Well, of course -
everyone receives all the news
from moment to moment.
These rockets have fallen -
this many people have been killed.
Etc. Etc. Etc.

But,
what about the over-all picture?
What is going to happen?

Some,
such as myself think that
this may be a part of the prelude to
"The Last Great Battle of Armageddon!"

To that point -
and relative to a newsletter
that I wrote months ago -
about the Israeli Airfield at Meggido
(the location on the backside of Mt. Carmel
from which Armageddon gets its name)
there was an interesting throw-away line
in a news article last week
about remains of the world's
'oldest Christian church'
having been discovered there at Meggido -
and that
"the airfield will be expanded to handle tourists."

Interesting -
because I have speculated that one of
the ready and armed Israeli nuclear bombers
had been dispersed to that airfield -
signs to which I had seen in photos
of an Israeli expressway.

But -
I was told the signs had been removed -
the airfield no longer listed or on the maps -
and that it now no longer existed -
so when I saw the statement
that it would be expanded -
I said to myself -
"Ahh-hah! The truth comes out -
the airfield is there -
and being 'hidden'."

Moreover, there were specific reports
of attempts of Hizbullah rocket strikes
at military installations in that vicinity
which certainly shows that opposing forces
know where it is -
and probably know or suspect what it is.

David Dolan wrote:
"... rockets for the first time struck the town of Afula in the Jezreel
Valley—the prophesied scene of the last battle of history, Armageddon, which
is some 35 miles south of the Lebanese border."

I have a bit of a problem -
following the geography -
but apparantly Haifa is on one side
of Mt. Carmel -
Meggido and Afula on the other -
with some distance between them.

Anyway -
numbers of people are watching that scene -
also.

Aside from all that -
when I speak of what is happening
what I am giving here is my speculation
on the present Israeli military strategy.
Let me warn you -
that my analysis is very different
from what I am reading elsewhere.

Whether or not you think
Israel should continue to exist -
we can begin with the assumption
that the government of Israel
thinks that Israel should continue to exist -
and is working towards that end,
and what we are examining here
is what I see as the strategy
being implemented towards that end.

There are of course
legitimate differences of opinion
in Israel
as to what strategy should be used -
and even more differences of opinion
regarding tactical moves within the strategy.

Moreover,
there are publically expressed statements
regarding the strategy -
and the actual strategy itself.
It is only the latter that concerns us here.

The Great Debate in Israel
was the issue of the Road Map to Peace -
and the exchange of land for peace.

Some very influential thinkers
and policy makers in Israel
advocated 'disengagement'.

"We're familiar with the Likud's horror stories. They promised us Katyushas
from Gaza, but Gaza has been under the primary control of the Palestinian
Authority for more than a year now, and there hasn't been a single
Katyusha."
Prime Minister, Labor MK Yitzchak Rabin
Jerusalem Post-June 20, 1995

Before the withdrawal from Lebanon, the Intelligence Directorate also
threatened us with Katyushas reaching Hadera and we see what actually
happened. I estimate, and my estimate is just as valid as those that
threaten us with horrors, that after we leave the Gaza Strip, terrorism will
decrease, not increase."
Former Mossad Head,
Labor MK Dani Yatom
Maariv, Feb. 5, 2004

"I anticipate that the level of terrorism will drop after the disengagement
and after pragmatic Arab forces take control."
Defense Minister,
Kadima MK Shaul Mofaz
Arutz Sheva - Jul 02, 2004

Others felt that disengagement
would cause increased difficulties
for Israel.

"If we cut and run, Gaza will be taken over by terror organizations ...
Gaza's squares shall be transformed into launching platforms of Katyushas
toward Ashkelon ... The only way to defeat terrorism is by controlling its
bases."
Likud MK Ariel Sharon
Maariv, June 12, 1992

"Every time there is a wave of terrorism, all sorts of 'experts' say that we
should unilaterally get out of Gaza. If we do so, the Gaza Strip will become
a cancerous thorn of terrorism, 1,000 times more dangerous than it is now.
What will we do when katyushas are fired from Biet Yachie on Ashkelon and
from Biet Hanoun on Sderot?"
Tourism Minister and Moledet Leader
MK Rehavam Ze'evi
Knesset Minutes, March 1993

"We must take into account that after withdrawal, Ashkelon, a major Israeli
city, will be within the effective range of Kassam rockets. In the future,
when sea and airports are built in Gaza and we will have no control, they
will have Katyushas with a longer range that can also reach Kiryat Gat or
southern Ashdod."
Major General (Res.) Yakov Amidror
Maariv, February 5, 2004

"If the Disengagement plan is carried out, Kassam rocket attacks will be the
lot of cities from Ashkelon to Ofakim [also inside Israel], and will become
a daily occurrence."
Yisrael Beiteinu Head, MK Avigdor Lieberman
July 5, 2004

The irony of all this
is that those most opposed
to disengagement
became the implementers
of disengagement.

It is an irony and inconsistency
that is incomprehensible
to most people -
including most Jews in Israel.

That Israel did withdraw
first from Lebanon
and then from Gaza
and now is planning to give back
95% of the territories on the West Bank -
is seen by Islamists as VICTORY
for their side and their policies
of confrontation.

The above is also considered as DEFEAT
by the Orthodox and other Israeli Jews
committed to Jewish Manifest Destiny.
[I will not belabor discussing here -
that sector of Orthodox Judaism
that does not think Israel should presently exist -
because they are awaiting the arrival of
an expected Messiah before its establishment.]

But -
the greatest irony here -
is that in the end -
the strongest advocates of presence
in Gaza and on the hilltops of the territories -
(Sharon and Olmert) became the engineers
of the withdrawal.

Netanyahu, being in political opposition
was able to also play the role of
strategic oppositionist but being a general
of equal experience and skill as Sharon -
he certainly understood Sharon's reasons
for withdrawal.

The reason for the change in policy -
by Sharon and his second-in-command Olmert
was not a betrayal of the Jewish Dream -
but rather a strategic necessity.
In the face of loudly expressed protests
by the extreme Jewish Right
they engineered and executed
the most difficult of all tactical manuevers -
an organized retreat.

They had come to realize -
that the Israeli resources were stretched too thin.
They had been stretched too thin -
with the occupancy of Lebanon -
and now they were stretched too thin
with the occupancy of Gaza and the Territories.

The strategy said -
"Hold on to the short term prizes -
and lose the long term goals -
or make short term concessions -
to be able to still work towards
the Manifest Destiny."

Simply put -
using all their military resources -
Israel was not going to be able to protect
the Jewish settlers in the Territories
or in Gaza.
Not necessarily the case -
in the shortrun -
but rather in the overall scheme of things
when a greater conflict arose.

The Greater Conflict -
was that with Iran.
It was and is an 'existential' conflict
because Iran has not only the declared policy
of the non-existence of Israel -
but is also developing the technological means
of achieving that end.

As the Iranians clearly put it -
they are a large country
and can absorb several nuclear hits -
from Israel -
but Israel is very tiny -
and a single nuclear weapon or two
will probably be adequate to cause it
to cease to exist as a nation.

In an open conflict with Iran -
Israel could expect massive ground force response
from Muslims in its immediate vicinity -
and while these latter
may not be highly technologically equipped -
in a combined effort they could
have easily overwhelmed
the Israeli Defensive Forces
in Gaza, the territories, on the northern front,
such as in Sheba Farms, and elsewhere
where Israel was spread too thin.

Therefore it was necessary
for Israel to protect its core -
to erect the wall -
and to quite candidly create a killing ground -
where these hordes could be stopped.
For this reason -
to protect the settlers -
no matter how much it inconvenienced them -
or displeased them -
it was necessary to bring them within
the castle walls.

This was but
Step One -
of the overall plan -
to be out of Gaza, Lebanon,
and as much as possible - the territories -
and behind the safety of the wall.

Step Two
in the plans of the Generals
(Sharon and Netanyahu)
was a pre-emptive strike
against Iran.

Unfortunately,
for this strategy -
Destiny intervened -
Sharon had a stroke -
and Olmert did not have the political capital
to carry through the plan.

Hence there occurred a delay of six months -
in which Iran, Hamas, and Hezbullah,
greatly strengthened their resources
and consolidated their positions.

Thus it is that we find ourselves
in the current situation -
and must now examine the strategy
in light of that situation.

Discussion of such involved affairs
takes longer than I am permitted
to present in a single newsletter
and so consequently this will have
to be continued over to the next issue.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org