[Arktwo] How Goes the War?

[Bruce Beach]

To answer the question - 
one must ask which war - 
and for which side.

Not well for Canada in Afghanistan. 
Yesterday - 
most casualties (four) for a single day. 
But - 
it is a lose / lose situation anyway. 
Just there - 
as a political necessity 
because of Canada's relationship to the US.

Then there is the war in Iraq. 
Again - 
lose / lose.
US went in and got the Shiites out from under 
the thumb of the Sunnis. 
Now the Shiites everywhere -
Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, are supporting Hezbollah. 
In Iraq when they aren't doing that - 
then they are killing the Sunnis. 
Many wish for the good old days of stability - 
under Saddam.

But of course - 
everyone is wondering how the war is going 
between Israel and Hezbollah - 
(and between Israel and Hamas). 
The latter isn't getting much attention - 
because of the intensity of the former.

When the shootout started - 
Hezbollah was reported to have 13,000 rockets.
As of this week they are reported to have used 
about 3,000 of them. 
Israel claims to have destroyed 
another 20 percent -
which would be 2600. 
Therefore -
5600 gone. 
We are almost exactly one month into the fighting -
and about 40% of the Hezbollah inventory is - 
gone.

Of course - 
they were being resupplied from Iran 
through Syria. 
The key word here is 'were' 
because this week Israel severed 
the last road link between Lebanon and Syria.
The main reason being - 
that Iran had sent 16 considerably improved missiles -
by air transportation into Syria. 
These missiles could have reached Tel Aviv.

Syria, 
in accordance with the rules of the engagement 
does not dare allow them to be launched 
from Syria. 
Israel would retaliate by striking Syria - 
and Syria's air force is no match for Israel's.
So - 
for the moment - 
there they sit - 
a great temptation - 
but not presently available to the chagrin of Hezbollah.

In the meantime - 
because Israel is destroying their rocket caches on the ground -
Hezbollah has gone into a use them - 
or lose them - 
mode.
This means that when for the first part of this months fighting - 
they were using less than 50 rockets a day - 
now they are trying to use more like 200.
Given that they have 7500 left - 
and if Israel again manages to destroy 20%
or 1500 on the ground - 
then they will be firing 5000 more 
and at the rate of 200 per day 
will be out of them in 25 days.

In actuality - 
as the numbers get lower - 
they would probably try to conserve them 
and continue to have a few - 
just as does Hamas.
But as an overall factor -
the missile front would become largely ineffective -
and THAT was Israel's goal. 

So, for Israel - 
we can say the war goes well - 
even with the increased losses 
(10+ Israeli soldiers killed today). 
Even extrapolate that number over 
the next 25 days - 
it would be 250 total -
and double it for Israeli civilian casualties -
and we arrive at 500 - 
which remains fractional to what Lebanon is losing - 
and will continue to lose 
during the same time period.

Hezbollah of course shouts - 
that they are winning.
Whatever that means. 
Always a lot of shouting from there. 
'Mother of all battles'
'The end of Israel' 
'We are really fighting the US' 
etc.

In a sense - 
no one wins -
and the losses are tremendous 
for civilians, children and others 
who have no control over the activities.

Nevertheless - 
as per Israel's initial strategy - 
the war moves forward. 
As I carefully explained 
in a number of earlier newsletters - 
my analysis of the Israeli strategy is that it is NOT:
	a. To destroy Lebanon
	b. To take over Lebanese land
	c. To occupy Lebanon 
	d. Or even to destroy Hezbollah -
		which is something too nebulous 
		and now ubiquitous in Lebanon 
		to be destroyed.

My analysis has always been 
that Israel's goal is simply 
to make Hezbollah's rockets ineffective - 
that is to put them beyond the moat - 
and to create a killing ground - 
for when Israel takes on the more serious business of Iran.

In appears that will be accomplished 
in the next 3-5 weeks  
on top of which Israel will need 
a couple of weeks to regroup 
before taking on the next phase. 
Therefore we are looking at five to seven weeks.
Still sometime in September 
for an early 'October Surprise'.

Things (especially wars) of course - 
never work out as planned - 
and we don't know what the other players will do. 
The President of Iran 
has promised some 'significant' response 
on August 22nd, 
which is a date of Muslim 'significance'. 
I have explained why -
in previous emails 
and so won't go there again for the moment. 

The date that I have picked 
is Saturday August the 12th, 
because it is the last day 
of the World Gay Pride Conference in Jerusalem. 
(Yes, the parade has been cancelled -
but not the Conference.)

Whichever and whatever - 
the world events move on at a pace.
The three main players remain - 
US, Russia, China, 
with a number of wannabees 
such as France, India, Pakistan, etc., etc., etc.

At the moment - 
the main players are only glaring at each other 
and flexing their muscles. 
Sort of like a couple of macho men 
urging on their boys in a proxy battle.

However, 
as things get nastier 
the big boys are going to have 
to throw off their coats and get into the fray.

The US backs Israel all the way - 
and Russia backs Iran. 
Sells them TORs and nuclear technology. 
Combines with them in alliances with Syria - 
to whom it sells more weapons 
and where it is building a major seaport. 

It is all coming down -
soon. 
How soon - 
may be clearer next Sunday - 
if everything hasn't fallen apart 
by Saturday.

Yes, I am watching the diddle and dawdle 
of the UN -
which all means nothing but words, words, words.

Peace and love,
Bruce 
DawnSayer@webpal.org